MacroScope

Euro zone survival is in the eye of the beholder

June 14, 2012

Despite all their years of experience and complex mathematical models, for economists the question of the euro zone’s survival really has them at the mercy of national bias… at least in terms of where their employer is based.

One of the key points from the latest Reuters poll was that a majority of economists from banks and research houses around the world – 37 out of 59 – expect the euro zone to survive in its current form for the next 12 months.

But behind that headline figure, the answers were skewed heavily by region.

Only 5 out of 24 economists from organisations based inside the euro zone thought it would fail to survive in its present 17-nation form over the next 12 months.

But nearly half (17 out of 35) of those employed by institutions based outside the euro zone – British, North American, Scandinavian or Swiss – expected to see at least one country leave the currency union over the next year.

“Will the euro zone survive in its current form for the next 12 months?” sounds like a scientific question. But clearly the answer depends at least partly on the locale of an economist’s employer, rather than economics.

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