MacroScope

Forecasts for the euro zone depend more on head office location than analysis

June 27, 2013

Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.

It’s been noted before (herehere, and here), but economists and fund managers working for euro zone-based banks and research houses tend to be optimists about the euro zone. Everywhere else – including Britain, North America and the Nordics – they tend to be pessimists.

That familiar pattern was plain to see in the latest Reuters poll this week, as economists were asked on whether borrowing costs for struggling euro zone countries like Spain and Italy were likely to return to danger levels in the next few months.

(Graphic by @ReutersFlasseur)

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