If at first you don’t succeed… Fed’s Evans sticks to strong forecast despite misses

September 6, 2013

It’s nice to know Federal Reserve officials have a sense of humor about their own forecasting errors. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was certainly humble enough to admit to some recent misses in a speech on Friday .

Still, he’s sticking to his guns, arguing that U.S. economic growth will finally break above 3 percent next year, allowing the Fed to gradually pull back on its bond-buying stimulus.

In 2009, I predicted that growth would pick up. I did the same in 2010, 2011 and 2012. And I was not alone – most FOMC participants and many outside analysts shared this overly optimistic view. Undaunted, I make my intrepid forecast: I anticipate growth to average about 2-1/2 percent in the second half of the year and to be in the neighborhood of 3 percent next year. I expect the unemployment rate to be somewhat below 7 percent by the end of 2014.

Why is this time different? Here is Evans’ reasoning:

The economic fundamentals are much improved. The cyclical repair process is well under way. Although many households are still distressed, the housing sector as a whole is much better off than it was earlier in the recovery. Housing prices have risen noticeably over the past year.1 The number of mortgages underwater is down from 12.1 million in early 2010 to 9.7 million in the first quarter of 2013. Equity markets have largely recovered and are now around 5 percent above their pre-recession peaks. After several years of restraint, there is pent-up demand for 5 consumer durables. Businesses that had generally delayed capital expenditures are in a relatively favorable position today to finance these outlays. Most big businesses’ balance sheets are in good shape, and surveys show that fewer small businesses see access to credit as a major concern and that there has been an increase in demand for loans from small firms.

Another factor behind my forecast is that it appears there will be less fiscal restraint in 2014 and 2015. Specifically, fiscal restraint will still have a negative impact on GDP growth, but it is expected to be smaller for the next few years. The tax hikes that occurred at the beginning of this year won’t be repeated in 2014. Furthermore, under current law, much of the impact of the sequester on government spending occurs in 2013; so, fiscal reductions in the next few years will be smaller, and the negative impact on growth will be less.

Thus, the stage is set for what we economists like to refer to as “virtuous cyclical dynamics.” Continued growth in jobs and income as well as greater confidence in the labor market will lead to higher household spending. As firms see actual demand rising, they have an incentive to expand capacity, undertake previously delayed capital expenditures and increase hiring. This then further improves the well-being of households and continues the self-reinforcing virtuous cycle.

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