Nailed-on for a stronger UK services PMI after factory surge?

November 2, 2015

A surprisingly strong surge in British manufacturing growth last month has left a few economists scratching their heads. Is it a one-off? Could a manufacturing recovery really appear out of seemingly nowhere?

The answers are probably a few months away but they can at least be fairly sure of one thing — Wednesday’s Markit/CIPS services PMI will also show an improvement, if past patterns are anything to go by.

The manufacturing PMI shot up 3.7 points in October from September, hitting a 16-month of 55.5. This was 3 points higher than the most optimistic forecast in a Reuters poll. Increases that big — or greater — have always been accompanied by a rise in the services PMI in the same month.

uk man pmi

A better services number on Wednesday wouldn’t be a surprise — only one out of 37 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a weaker reading in October. But the extent of the improvement could go some way to working out if the apparent surge in manufacturing is a blip, or if the economy really might have found a second wind in the final months of the year.

No comments so far

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see