A poor work environment and health complaints before retirement were associated with a steeper yearly increase in the prevalence of suboptimum health while still in work, and a greater retirement-related improvement; however, people with a combination of high occupational grade, low demands, and high satisfaction at work showed no such retirement-related improvement.

In simple terms, this is saying that if a worker is happy, their health is better. Anyone who has ever had a bad job could have told them that! But the study, of course takes it further.

Working life for older workers needs to be redesigned to achieve higher labour-market participation.

This has broad implications, given the trend away from final salary pensions and the general view that workers are going to have to work longer than in previous generations. Companies that are faced with workers who cannot easily retire because of a lack of pension savings, that need people to work longer  and that are subject to increasing anti-age discrimination will need to take the employment needs of older employees on board.

It may not be easy. As the ING post points out, the OECD looks at the issue in a 2006 report entitled “Live Longer, Work Longer”. It began its report:

In an era of rapid population ageing, many employment and social policies, practices and attitudes that discourage work at an older age have passed their sell-by date and need to be overhauled. They not only deny older workers choice about when and how to retire but are costly for business, the economy and society.

Then comes the recommendations:

– There must be strong financial incentives to carry on working and existing, subsidised pathways to early retirement have to be eliminated.
– Wage-setting and employment practices must be adapted to ensure that employers have stronger incentives to hire and retain older workers.
– Older workers must be given appropriate help and encouragement to improve their employability.
– A major shift in attitudes to working at an older age will be required on the part of both employers and older workers themselves

Is any of this being done?

Equatorial Guinea made a relatively rare foray into the global news earlier this month for a presidential pardon of  former British army officer Simon Mann, who was serving a 34-year prison sentence in the country for his role in a failed coup d’etat in 2004.

Gabriel Obiang Lima, vice minister of mines, industry and energy, was in London to talk about his ambition for the country. “Our aim is not to be the Kuwait of the region. It’s to be the Singapore of the region,” he told dozens of business executives in a conference in London on Wednesday.

“Equatorial Guinea has to have other industries that are not dependent on oil and gas.”

But it has a long way to go towards establishing a Singapore-like country. The U.S. State Department says application of the laws remains selective and corruption among officials is widespread, and many business deals are concluded under nontransparent circumstances.

The vice minister says Equatorial Guinea is investing heavily in ports, health care and infrastructure.

“Talk is cheap but we have to deliver,” he said, wrapping up his 40-minute speech.

Are we now getting blasé about the latest crisis? Not so long ago, perfectly respectable economists and financial analysts were talking about a new Great Depression. The world was on the brink, it was said. Now, though, consensus appears to be that it is all over bar the shouting. The world is safe.

Wealth managers at Barclays have gone as far as telling their clients to get over it.

Move past the crisis …. The past year’s events were deeply traumatic for most investors, but now is the time to move on, and take a more “business as usual” approach ….”

Such bullishness may not be comforting to the record numbers of jobless in parts of the world, but it is bordering on consensus. It is left to the likes of perma-bears such as  Nouriel Roubini to try to burst the bubble of optimism on which many are floating. The economist began one of his latest articles bluntly:

Think the worst is over? Wrong.

Roubini’s main point is that unemployment is likely to get worse rather than better and that many U.S. jobs that have been lost will not come back.

Now, there can obviously be a disconnect between markets and economics, but the former tends to be based on assumptions about the latter. So which is right? Are we out of the woods? Or should Supertramp be firing up their keyboards again?

However, playing it safe has its own costs in golf and business, Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer, professors of economics and psychology at the Wharton School, said in their paper entitled "Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse? Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stakes."

The professors studied putts during pro golf tournaments and their research suggested the "agony of a bogey seems to outweigh the thrill of a birdie." They calculated that type of decision-making bias costs the average golfer about 1 stroke during a 72-hole tournament, translating to a combined loss of about $1.2 million in prize money per year for the top 20 golfers.

"This research provides evidence that people work especially hard in order to avoid losses," Pope said.

The researchers found that golfers avoid the possibility of loss by playing conservatively when they could do better than par, but will try harder if they are at risk of coming in above par. Pope said "loss aversion" is part of a growing field of behavioral economics, which explores how human psychology impacts markets and business.

In a business context, the professors said par might be equated to quarterly earnings or investors' approach to selling or holding on to stocks depending on what they initially paid for the shares.

The professors said their work challenges theories that suggest bias in decision making does not persist in markets. They used data from 230 PGA Tour golf tournaments between 2004 and 2009, concentrating on 2.5 million putts attempted by 412 golfers who each made at least 1,000 putts.

Pope, who does not golf, and Schweitzer, who only occasionally plays, said the study shows even experts in a subject suffer from bias in high-stakes settings.

"The bottom line is this," said Schweitzer, "If Tiger Woods is biased when he plays golf, what hope do the rest of us have?"

(Reuters photo by Mick Tsikas)

Belichick chose to have the Patriots go for a first down late in the fourth quarter with his team deep in its own territory and clinging to a lead on the road. New England failed to convert and the Colts immediately drove for the winning score in its 35-34 victory. And the second guessing began.

However, Greg Mankiw, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush and now an economist at Harvard University, said on his blog that sometimes even the optimal strategy fails.

"It did not work out well in this particular case, and Belichick is coming under some heat for his call," Mankiw said. "This does not mean ... Belichick (is) wrong. Some strategies that fail ex post might be optimal ex ante. Randomness is a fact of life, even if Patriots' fans do not fully appreciate it."

Belichick defended his decision again on Monday. He should take heart that most people face criticism in their lives, including Mankiw, who in 2004 came under heavy fire for saying outsourcing of U.S. jobs to workers overseas may benefit the U.S. economy.

(Reuters photo by Brent Smith)

"I didn't know about that (the release time). I'm sorry. Don't make much of a fuss" Japanese Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima told a TV reporter on Monday, right after he accidentally revealed the GDP figures ahead of their official release.

The minister looked sincerely surprised when informed of the official release time, but the light tone of his comments suggested that he did not fully understand the gravity of the error. 

He later offered a more formal apology, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano reprimanded Naoshima for his leak of the market-sensitive data, which showed Japan's economy grew much more than expected in the third quarter.

Still, I was surprised to see Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama smiling when asked about Naoshima's mistake.

"I can understand his wanting to spread the good news to the public," Hatoyama told reporters.  "But the rule should be maintained. If you say he was careless, he surely was, and in that sense, it was regrettable."

Naoshima made the blunder in a speech to the oil industry, but the small crowd of domestic reporters covering his event did not report it, and in that sense, the new minister was lucky.

Overall, Japanese media coverage of the leak has been relatively small, considering how it could have moved financial markets. 

I remember how the then Liberal Democratic Party-led Japanese government in 1999 was forced to confirm economic growth figures, after a business daily reported GDP data ahead of its official release.  At that time, share prices surged and the yen jumped after the report.

Since then, the government has become more careful about handling GDP data and the release time has been moved from mid-afternoon to 8:50 a.m. -- before the stock market opens.  

Monday's numbers were the first GDP figures since Hatoyama's Democratic Party took power, though I cannot help but wonder how a senior official of the world's No.2 economy was not wise to their potential sensitivity.

"They still haven't got out of the habit of being an opposition party," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan. "It is embarrassing.... It makes me sad as a Japanese citizen."

Photo credit: REUTERS/Toru Hanai

Gold this week rallied to a new record high above $1100 an ounce, even as the dollar sank to a 15-month low against a basket of major currencies. 

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said this week he was mindful of the possibility that the central bank’s pledge to keep interest rates at rock-bottom lows for an “extended period” might be fueling the carry trade. That’s when investors use a “cheap” low-yielding currency to fund trades on riskier assets with loftier returns.

He added that the dollar’s decline had not been disorderly so far, but that he would expect the FOMC (the Fed’s policy-setting committee) and other authorities to craft an appropriate remedy if that were to happen.

 ”I have great confidence in colleague Schaeuble,” Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said on arrival for the Ecofin meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.

Germany expects its deficit to hit 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, and roughly 6 percent in 2010, double the European Union limit of 3 percent.

But the veteran of German politics, a tax lawyer, convinced other EU finance ministers he would put Germany’s public finances in order. The 67-year-old told reporters he expected the Commission to propose that Germany would get it deficit within the EU limit in 2013.

“I think when one listens to Minister Schaeuble, one immediately has the impression one is listening to a very credible politician,” European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said after a meeting late on Monday of euro area finance officials, the so-called Eurogroup.

Schaeuble, in a wheelchair since he was shot and nearly killed by a mentally ill man at a campaign rally in 1990, is seen as one of the most talented German politicians of his generation and may have become chancellor himself had he not become ensnared in the funding scandal that damaged his Christian Democrats (CDU) and former mentor Helmut Kohl a decade ago.

He was not Merkel’s first choice for finance minister but by picking him last month she electrified German media because Schaeuble is expected to be a forceful and possibly uncomfortable presence for Merkel in a cabinet largely devoid of strong personalities.

Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado said Schaeuble showed a strong commitment to respecting the EU’s deficit rules, enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact. “I don’t think there was any doubt on our part as to his absolute commitment to comply with the provisions of that pact,” she said after Monday’s Eurogroup.

McKeeva Bush, the veteran Caymanian politican who is now premier of the British Overseas Territory, popped in to the Reuters London headquarters for a chat this week. His main concern was to explain plans for making the islands an easier place for financial services personnel to live in. He would like some of those 8,000 hedge nearly 10,000 funds that are registered there to be more than just brass plaques. But, when asked, he also had time to dismiss the idea of a transaction tax out of hand.

“That’s an old hat. I have been hearing about it for 25 years. It’s just not practicable. It will not work.”

And just in case the point was missed:

“We have looked at it and we do not think this is something that would work.”

Bush would not be drawn on the idea that a tax on transactions could, metaphorically speaking, sink his Caribbean island homeland under the waves. But Paul Byles, a government financial services consultant who accompanied the premier, did touch on the liquid nature of the issue:

“Tax flows, and they will move somewhere else.”

BELLA VISTA, Arkansas – For a man who has had his salary cut 10 percent and now has to work hard to make it to his next paycheck, Denny Robertson is in a philosophical frame of mind.

“I have had to learn to live with less. But I have shelter and I have food, so I have everything I need," he said. "It’s uncomfortable to run out of money before the next paycheck, but we’ll get by.

Robertson, 34, is a product engineer at tool maker Kennametal Inc. at a facility in nearby Rogers. Facing the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s, earlier this year the company laid off some staff locally and – in a bid to preserve jobs – gave others one week of furlough, or unpaid leave, every month.

After five months of that, however, the company gave salaried staff a 10 percent pay cut instead in order to keep the facility open at all times.

“If the economy shows signs of improvement then my salary will go back up,” Robertson said. “But I’m not holding my breath that the economy is improving and I’m not banking on it.”

“I keep hearing that the economy is recovering but I just don’t see it.”

Robertson and his wife Rebecca have two young daughters and have had to rethink their budget.

“We have picked up some good habits because of my situation,” he said, speaking at his home in this leafy small town in northwest Arkansas, which is just a few miles from the home of low-cost retail giant Walmart in Bentonville. “We eat out less and I have become more disciplined at making my own lunches for work rather than eating fast food every day.”

As a result, he has lost 20 pounds this year without any additional exercise. The Roberstons also now buys second-hand clothing and with the holidays coming up is planning to buy gifts only for children in their extended family – they will make cookies and other gifts themselves for the adults.

Robertson has stopped paying into his 401(k) retirement savings plan and the family now relies on credit cards only for emergencies.

“The credit cards are only for unexpected things,” he said. Recently his two daughters came down with the H1N1 virus and even with his healthcare coverage he had to charge co-payments and prescriptions to his credit card.

Robertson said that living with less has made him appreciate his church even more and he has raised his tithe payment to the church to 10 percent of his income.

“Even once my salary rises I’ll continue to do that,” he said. Another thing he said that will continue is that he intends to live within his means and not buy into America’s consumer culture any more.

He said that his church has members who are children of the Great Depression and this downturn has taught to appreciate what they went through growing up.

“In one way this recession may be a good thing for my generation,” Robertson said. “Perhaps this is what we need to build a little character.”

“We don’t have to have the latest TV to enjoy life,” he said. “Sure, I’d like to have that TV. But unless I can pay for it in cash, I’m not going to buy it.”

Photos by Lucy Nicholson

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