South Africa’s Q2 GDP growth punches way below expectations in worrying sign for emerging markets

August 25, 2015

South Africa’s second quarter growth undershot economists’ expectations in spectacular fashion on Tuesday, a clear signal emerging markets face torrid times.

Euro zone’s best growth days may already be in the rear-view mirror

August 21, 2015

The latest euro zone flash purchasing managers’ indexes may have surprised slightly on the higher side, but many are still not convinced that better economic growth is coming later this year.

Inventory pile underscores risk Philly Fed could go the Empire State way

August 20, 2015

Obama visits General Electric in Schenectady New York

“Nothing to see here, folks” was the reaction most analysts had to a completely shocking report earlier this week that showed manufacturing business conditions in New York State deteriorated at their fastest pace since the start of the financial crisis.

UK inflation: core is not yet more

August 18, 2015

The surprise rise in British inflation from zero to 0.1 percent and core inflation by 0.4 percentage point to 1.2 percent in July supports the view rates soon must go up – and also it doesn’t.

Breakout for U.S. services economy?

August 6, 2015

It’s not very often you come across a chart like this. Usually this kind of thing happens once every 10 years or so.

More signs of ‘Britain the Unbalanced’

August 5, 2015

PMI chart

While still signaling a solid rate of economic expansion in Britain, the latest batch of business surveys from Markit/CIPS will do little to quell unease about the lopsidedness of the recovery.

U.S. Fed interest rate “crawl-off” not yet fixed for September

July 28, 2015

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????A U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September is almost certain according to many forecasters and investors, but the decision to tighten policy for the first time in nearly a decade is not as clear-cut as it may appear.

Does the Bank of England really follow the Fed?

July 21, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“Daft” is how outgoing Bank of England policymaker David Miles described the idea that Britain’s central bank would have to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve before hiking interest rates.

Interest rates hikes are not done and dusted

July 20, 2015

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Yellen talks with Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, during the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Istanbul

The U.S. and British central banks are scrambling to be the first of the majors to raise interest rates after a long period of unprecedented monetary generosity. It won’t happen immediately but both Janet Yellen, who chairs the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney say there will be a hike this year (Yellen) or around the end of the year (Carney). Might this be a bit of a rush? Not everything in the world economy is as sanguine as the U.S. and British economies purport to be.

Britain’s job miracle starting to look slightly less miraculous

July 16, 2015

After years of defying gravity and outperforming the rest of Europe, Britain’s job market looks like it might be slowing down.