Are the PMIs a smoking gun for the BoE’s hawks?

November 4, 2015

Might the latest survey of British services companies be the clincher for Bank of England policymakers who’ve been tempted to vote for higher interest rates?

50 still matters for the Fed

November 2, 2015

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis GrizzliesThe Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, long one of the most reliable leading momentum indicators in the U.S. economy, has been flashing warning signs of late, but especially in the last few months.

Nailed-on for a stronger UK services PMI after factory surge?

November 2, 2015

A surprisingly strong surge in British manufacturing growth last month has left a few economists scratching their heads. Is it a one-off? Could a manufacturing recovery really appear out of seemingly nowhere?

Erdogan’s winning bet; Osborne in Berlin

By Mark John
November 2, 2015

Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan has won his gamble that snap elections would shore up his position as voters backed his AK Party as the best bet for stability. Markets have responded by pushing the lira and the stock market higher, but for Turkey’s Western neighbours his victory is a double-edged sword: they would naturally welcome Erdogan now using his enhanced position to do more on the Syrian conflict and migrant conflict, but it would only add to tensions with Europe if he were to point to the result as justification for an increasingly authoritarian path. His party is just shy of the super-majority needed to put a new constitution granting him extra powers to a referendum, but his PM has already called on other parties to back such a move.

What’s China gonna do? Forget about it. What’s Yellen gonna do?

October 30, 2015

By now, you’ve probably heard this catchy song about China’s five-year plan on Youtube. If not, take a listen.

Bank of Japan reruns inflation downgrade script

October 30, 2015

BAfter over a decade-and-a-half of aggressive monetary easing through asset purchases, the Bank of Japan still has to revise down its inflation projections just about every six months, almost like clockwork.

Fiscal spending the only way out for Canada’s struggling economy?

October 29, 2015

Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau waves while accompanied by his wife Sophie Gregoire as he gives his victory speech after Canada's federal election in MontrealAfter sailing relatively smoothly through the choppy waters of the financial crisis and its after-effects, the Canadian economy is finally getting caught up in the global economic slowdown.

U.S. growth probably slowed sharply in Q3…and winter is coming

October 29, 2015

RTR4U8M1.jpgIt’s probably a good thing the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting with a strong signal of its intentions, because GDP growth data expected later on Thursday are unlikely to cement rate hike views one way or another.

No, really: look to economists for nuance on Fed’s decision-making

October 29, 2015

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Yellen testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in WashingtonFor all of the incessant talk from market trading desks on how economic forecasters are hopelessly off track on just about everything, their collective thinking on the subtleties of Fed policy near a potentially historic turning point has been well worth listening to.

ECB’s ‘whole menu’ bereft of new dishes

October 28, 2015

A freelance journalist eats his dinner behind a note advertising a "crisis menu" in a restaurant in SibiuECB President Mario Draghi’s ‘whole menu’ of monetary policy options to spur lending and boost euro area inflation from below zero appears to have few new dishes, if any at all.