The theme of both Britain’s main political parties behaving like they want to lose next May’s election continues.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.
The Bank of England will produce its quarterly inflation report today. With wage growth still notable by its absence and inflation dropping to just 1.2 percent in September, noises from within the BoE suggest the timing of a first interest rate rise is heading further over the horizon.
Ukraine’s currency shed nearly 5 percent on Monday after a weekend that saw the heaviest shelling in a month of the main rebel stronghold in the east and signs that Moscow had dispatched troops and tanks to reinforce separatists. The prospect that a two-month-old ceasefire could collapse has helped drive the currency 12 percent lower since the central bank abandoned an unofficial peg a week ago.
After European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi managed to mend fences and get his colleagues to sign up to his 1 trillion euros or so target to push into the ailing euro zone economy, Paris hosts its version of the Jackson Hole central bankers meeting.
It’s ECB day. While the Federal Reserve has called time on its bond-buying and the Bank of Japan decided to create money at a more furious rate, the euro zone central bank will plot the middle course – waiting to gauge the impact of its recent efforts to pump more money into the currency bloc’s economy before entertaining further action.
After euro zone inflation ticked up for the first time in many months and the latest PMI surveys showed factory activity expanded only very slightly last month, today the European Commission publishes its autumn economic forecasts.
After the Federal Reserve wound up its bond-buying programme, as expected, and the Bank of Japan sprung a surprise by sharply increasing the pace of its money-printing, this week the European Central Bank takes its monthly bow and will probably come up with nothing new.
China’s economic growth will slow sharply to 5 percent over the next year or so rather than close to 7 percent suggested by forecasts based on official statistics, according to a new indicator of growth momentum published by Fathom, a London-based consultancy.