from Global Investing:

Watanabes shop for Brazilian real, Mexican peso

December 19, 2013

Are Mr and Mrs Watanabe preparing to return to emerging markets in a big way?

Mom and pop Japanese investors, collectively been dubbed the Watanabes, last month snapped up a large volume of uridashi bonds (bonds in foreign currencies marketed to small-time Japanese investors),  and sales of Brazilian real uridashi rose last month to the highest since July 2010, Barclays analysts say, citing official data.

Timber!

By Mike Peacock
December 19, 2013

A deal on European banking union was finally struck overnight. Already the inquests have begun into how robust it is.

from Rahul Karunakar:

A December taper: a chance to regain lost face?

December 18, 2013

Dear Fed,

You should taper in December and regain lost  face.

Signed,

A growing but vocal minority of economists

 

Even if the latest Reuters poll consensus still shows the Federal Reserve will wait until March before trimming its monthly bond purchases, the clamor to do that in December - or rather later today - is rising.

Banking union … timber not steel

By Mike Peacock
December 18, 2013

A day after she was sworn in for a third term and a day before she attends an EU summit in Brussels, Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a speech in the Bundestag lower house. She will then head to Paris in the evening for a meeting with French President Francois Hollande. That bilateral could be the moment that the seal is set on banking union, in time for the Thursday/Friday EU leaders summit.

Decision day for Kiev … and Moscow

By Mike Peacock
December 17, 2013

Decision day for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich as he heads to the Kremlin seeking a financial lifeline while demonstrators in Kiev gather again to demand he steps down.

Germany back in business

By Mike Peacock
December 16, 2013

Germany’s Social Democrats voted overwhelmingly to join a “grand coalition” with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives. The government will offer broad continuity with some tweaks, the reappointment of Wolfgang Schaeuble as finance minister testifies to that. But could it unlock some euro zone policy doors after three months of limbo?

Not bullish enough! How predictions for stocks in 2013 are turning out

December 13, 2013

The bulls were out in force again in Thursday’s quarterly Reuters poll of around 350 equity analysts – some 91.3 percent of forecasts for 20 major stock indexes predicted gains from here until the end of next year.

Euro zone stock market investors: “Crisis? What crisis?”

December 13, 2013

European shares will be the best performers next year, according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 350 strategists, analysts and fund managers. Frankfurt’s DAX is already up nearly 20 percent this year and is forecast to rally another 10 percent in 2014.

Ireland at the finishing line

By Mike Peacock
December 13, 2013

Ireland will officially exit its bailout on Sunday. Not much will happen but symbolically it’s huge and will be used by the EU as evidence that its austere crisis-fighting approach can work. Today, the IMF will confirm Dublin passed the last review of its bailout programme – the final piece in the jigsaw. Finance Minister Michael Noonan is also expected to speak.

Judgment day for Slovenia

By Mike Peacock
December 12, 2013

The Slovenian government is poised to publish the results of an external audit of its banks, which will say how much cash the government must inject to keep them afloat. We’ve heard from sources that the euro zone member needs as much as 5 billion euros to recapitalize largely state-owned banks.