A second opinion poll in three days has put the Scottish independence vote as too close to call.
TNS gave the “No” vote 39 percent support and “Yes” 38. Its last poll in late July gave the “No” campaign a 13-point lead. Taking only those who are certain to vote, the two camps are tied at 41 percent.
The figures look different to YouGov’s weekend poll which sent a jolt through London and Scotland. It gave the secessionists a 51-49 lead but the direction of travel is clear and with only nine days to that could be decisive.
The counter argument is that voters now have a week and more to ponder the fact that their vote could be the one that counts. It’s easier to vote for dramatic change when it’s unlikely to happen.
Both the latest polls show that if the union holds together it will be old people that will have delivered. Women and Labour supporters, previous “no” strongholds, are deserting fast. The other question is whether there will be a “shy No” vote.