From 1992 … Why the UK pollsters got it wrong

May 8, 2015

Pollsters failed dismally to predict the strength of support for Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives in this week’s national election — just as happened in 1992 when John Major scored an unexpectedly decisive victory. Here’s Reuters’ take on why the polling industry got it so wrong, 23 years ago.

After the election shock, big questions

By Mike Peacock
May 8, 2015

Britain's PM Cameron arrives with his wife Samantha at Number 10 Downing Street in London

A surprisingly decisive election win for Britain’s Conservative party has cheered financial markets and will probably allow Prime Minister David Cameron to govern unencumbered by coalition partners.

Still waiting for the great wage rebound

May 7, 2015

AIt’s now been well over a year since the two major central banks most likely to raise interest rates in the near future warned us we should pay attention to pay.

Greece points finger of blame at its creditors

By Mike Peacock
May 6, 2015

Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis leaves the European Commission headquarters in Brussels

After another day of to-and-fro on Greece’s bailout, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he expected euro zone finance ministers to acknowledge next Monday progress towards a cash-for-reform deal, opening the way to easing Athens’ liquidity crisis.

Is the dollar taking over the Fed’s job?

May 5, 2015

US trade

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While the surge in the greenback since July has turned up in all sorts of economic data, much of it not good, the big one may have just landed.

IMF playing hardball on Greece

By Mike Peacock
May 5, 2015

A man holding a Greek national flag and a placard walks in Constitution Square in Athens

We’ve heard various dates for when Greece will run out of money and some have already passed without incident but it is clear Athens’ cash position is getting increasingly desperate and it hasn’t yet managed to win over its creditors with economic reform plans.

Monetary policy: New T-shirt needed?

May 1, 2015

San Francisco Fed President John Williams  believes deeply that monetary policy is data-dependent, so much so that he has printed the mantra on T-shirts that he is giving away coast to coast. On Friday at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., however, he didn’t discuss the current state of U.S. economic data or the stance of monetary policy. Instead, he focused on why forcing the Fed to follow a strict monetary policy rule to make interest rate decisions would be, well, a problem (http://reut.rs/1bmCfvB). It’s a view that a number of his colleagues, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have publicly embraced. Monetary policy — it’s independent. Sounds like something you could put on a T-shirt.

Observations on Britain’s election

By Mike Peacock
May 1, 2015
British PM Cameron speaks during a campaign visit in Frinton-on-Sea

British Prime Minister David Cameron addresses supporters during an event in Frinton, Britain April 24, 2015. REUTERS/Toby Melville

Last TV debate over, election run-in begins

By Mike Peacock
May 1, 2015

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron gestures as he delivers an election speech at an engineering factory in Birmingham

With most of Europe taking May Day off, the focus is firmly on pre-election Britain.