No sign of economy rebalancing in latest China PMIs

January 6, 2016

China's Huang Qiushuang performs on the balance beam during the women's gymnastics team final in the North Greenwich Arena at the London 2012 Olympic Games July 31, 2012.   REUTERS/Mark Blinch (BRITAIN  - Tags: SPORT OLYMPICS SPORT GYMNASTICS)   - RTR35RC6

Chinese manufacturing has been in the dumps for a long while. But that was supposed to be offset by a government-induced shift in the economy toward domestic consumption, which underpins Beijing’s optimistic outlook for growth this year.

Fear of unemployment peaks in Brazil

January 5, 2016

A man looks at lists of job openings posted on a pole in downtown Sao Paulo March 19, 2015. Mounting job losses are pushing more and more Brazilians into the informal economy as self-employed workers, leaving them vulnerable to what could be the country's worst recession in 25 years. REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker

Inflation over 10 percent, a record-low exchange rate, job losses all around. Can it get any worse for Brazil in 2016?

Molto bene! Stand-out performance for Italian manufacturing vs rest of Europe

January 4, 2016

European stock markets may have had a rough start to 2016, but the first major European data releases of the year, covering momentum in manufacturing at the end of 2015, have been particularly good by recent standards.

UK bank stress tests do not clear fog over China risk

December 22, 2015

British banks survived the Bank of England’s 2015 stress tests largely unscathed, but the assessment published earlier this month also underscored the vulnerability of the UK banking system to China.

Prospects still slim for major global economic pickup

December 22, 2015

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The world economy may be set for another year like 2015, with modest growth in developed economies offsetting persistent weakness elsewhere but generating very little inflation and keeping interest rates low.

Fed’s Williams preps new Tee-shirt after rate hike

December 18, 2015

San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams earlier this year got so sick of answering reporters’ questions about when the U.S. central bank would raise rates that he had his son design a Tee-shirt that he could just give out.

Unfazed by Fed liftoff

December 17, 2015

US interest rate liftoff, so far at least, has been the sort of damp squib markets-wise that the Fed had been praying for after trailing the move for more than a year. Volatility surrounding last night’s announcement has been modest, most stock markets on Wall St and around the world are 1-2 pct firmer, the US yield curve has flattened with 2-year rates nudging just above 1.00 pct while 10-year yields actually fell back a bit. And as doveish as the message on “gradual” rate rises from here was, the Fed’s own assumptions on where rates go over the next year (from between 0.25-0.50 today to 1.25-1.50 in a year’s time) is still almost twice what the market’s is pricing over that horizon.

Argentina: what to watch this week

December 14, 2015

Argentina's President Mauricio Macri ties his necktie at his home before going to his swearing-in ceremoy in Buenos Aires, December 10, 2015. Macri took office as Argentina's first non-Peronist president in more than a decade on Thursday, promising to end policies of leftist populism and revive the South American country's ailing economy. Macri began his 4-year term in a ceremony snubbed by his predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, following a rancorous argument over where the handover of power should take place. REUTERS/Argentine Presidency/Handout via ReutersATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. - RTX1Y619

Argentina’s newly-elected liberal government is working around the clock to overhaul the country’s foreign exchange system. The administration has little margin for error but a positive view about Argentina’s outlook still prevails.

Wayward guidance: More Britons than ever don’t know where rates are headed

December 11, 2015

So much for forward guidance. The largest proportion of Britons on record — almost a quarter — have “no idea” where interest rates are heading over the next 12 months, according to the Bank of England’s quarterly survey of the public’s views on the economy.

UK trade misses target again. It’s time to look at the targets.

December 10, 2015

Another month, another round of disappointing British trade data.

Given it happens with such regularity, economists might be forgiven for viewing Thursday’s news of a widening goods trade deficit as a routine addition to Britain’s murky trade outlook.