Exports continue to give cold shoulder to Bank of Canada’s Poloz

November 13, 2015

Ever since Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz took office, he has preached the merits of a weaker currency for Canadian exports. But the roughly 30 percent fall in the dollar since then has failed to coax an export-based revival in Canada.

Air getting thin in Frankfurt: Next week at the ECB

November 13, 2015

The supermoon is seen next to the air-traffic warning light illuminated headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, early morning September 28, 2015. Sky-watchers around the world were treated when the shadow of Earth cast a reddish glow on the moon, the result of rare combination of an eclipse with the closest full moon of the year. The total "supermoon" lunar eclipse, also known as a "blood moon" is one that appears bigger and brighter than usual as it reaches the point in its orbit that is closest to Earth.  REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach - RTX1SSIR

The higher you climb, the thinner the oxygen. As it prints more money to help the economy, the European Central Bank has climbed ever steeper. Yet prices, a barometer of economic health, are dangerously close to reversing. If that happens, and shoppers postpone big buys or companies keep a lid on wages, we could see Japan-like stagnation. To avoid that, the ECB is set to top up bond-buying.

Some still say BoE rate hike to come sooner rather than later

November 11, 2015

carney.jpgThe consensus on when the Bank of England finally pulls the trigger and hikes interest rates from a record low 0.5 percent firmly settled on the second quarter of next year in the latest Reuters poll.

What to make of slowing UK wage growth?

November 11, 2015

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The British labour market has been a mixed bag of late.

On the plus side, there’s been plenty of good news about people getting jobs. But wage growth has slowed, against the expectation of some economists who thought tightness in the labour market would be pushing up wages more strongly by now.

Jobs at risk as Latin America’s downturn deepens

November 5, 2015

Laid-off outsourced worker, who was contracted to work for Petrobras, wears a mask of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a protest against recent layoffs, in front of the Petrobras headquarter in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Millions of Latin Americans risk losing their jobs as a consequence of the region’s economic downturn. Job losses are already piling up in Brazil, mired in its worst recession in generations, and look increasingly likely in other countries, according to a research report by UBS.

Are the PMIs a smoking gun for the BoE’s hawks?

November 4, 2015

Might the latest survey of British services companies be the clincher for Bank of England policymakers who’ve been tempted to vote for higher interest rates?

50 still matters for the Fed

November 2, 2015

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis GrizzliesThe Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, long one of the most reliable leading momentum indicators in the U.S. economy, has been flashing warning signs of late, but especially in the last few months.

Nailed-on for a stronger UK services PMI after factory surge?

November 2, 2015

A surprisingly strong surge in British manufacturing growth last month has left a few economists scratching their heads. Is it a one-off? Could a manufacturing recovery really appear out of seemingly nowhere?

Erdogan’s winning bet; Osborne in Berlin

November 2, 2015

Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan has won his gamble that snap elections would shore up his position as voters backed his AK Party as the best bet for stability. Markets have responded by pushing the lira and the stock market higher, but for Turkey’s Western neighbours his victory is a double-edged sword: they would naturally welcome Erdogan now using his enhanced position to do more on the Syrian conflict and migrant conflict, but it would only add to tensions with Europe if he were to point to the result as justification for an increasingly authoritarian path. His party is just shy of the super-majority needed to put a new constitution granting him extra powers to a referendum, but his PM has already called on other parties to back such a move.

What’s China gonna do? Forget about it. What’s Yellen gonna do?

October 30, 2015

By now, you’ve probably heard this catchy song about China’s five-year plan on Youtube. If not, take a listen.