Some still say BoE rate hike to come sooner rather than later

November 11, 2015

carney.jpgThe consensus on when the Bank of England finally pulls the trigger and hikes interest rates from a record low 0.5 percent firmly settled on the second quarter of next year in the latest Reuters poll.

What to make of slowing UK wage growth?

November 11, 2015

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The British labour market has been a mixed bag of late.

On the plus side, there’s been plenty of good news about people getting jobs. But wage growth has slowed, against the expectation of some economists who thought tightness in the labour market would be pushing up wages more strongly by now.

Jobs at risk as Latin America’s downturn deepens

November 5, 2015

Laid-off outsourced worker, who was contracted to work for Petrobras, wears a mask of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a protest against recent layoffs, in front of the Petrobras headquarter in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Millions of Latin Americans risk losing their jobs as a consequence of the region’s economic downturn. Job losses are already piling up in Brazil, mired in its worst recession in generations, and look increasingly likely in other countries, according to a research report by UBS.

Are the PMIs a smoking gun for the BoE’s hawks?

November 4, 2015

Might the latest survey of British services companies be the clincher for Bank of England policymakers who’ve been tempted to vote for higher interest rates?

50 still matters for the Fed

November 2, 2015

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis GrizzliesThe Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, long one of the most reliable leading momentum indicators in the U.S. economy, has been flashing warning signs of late, but especially in the last few months.

Nailed-on for a stronger UK services PMI after factory surge?

November 2, 2015

A surprisingly strong surge in British manufacturing growth last month has left a few economists scratching their heads. Is it a one-off? Could a manufacturing recovery really appear out of seemingly nowhere?

Erdogan’s winning bet; Osborne in Berlin

November 2, 2015

Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan has won his gamble that snap elections would shore up his position as voters backed his AK Party as the best bet for stability. Markets have responded by pushing the lira and the stock market higher, but for Turkey’s Western neighbours his victory is a double-edged sword: they would naturally welcome Erdogan now using his enhanced position to do more on the Syrian conflict and migrant conflict, but it would only add to tensions with Europe if he were to point to the result as justification for an increasingly authoritarian path. His party is just shy of the super-majority needed to put a new constitution granting him extra powers to a referendum, but his PM has already called on other parties to back such a move.

What’s China gonna do? Forget about it. What’s Yellen gonna do?

October 30, 2015

By now, you’ve probably heard this catchy song about China’s five-year plan on Youtube. If not, take a listen.

Bank of Japan reruns inflation downgrade script

October 30, 2015

BAfter over a decade-and-a-half of aggressive monetary easing through asset purchases, the Bank of Japan still has to revise down its inflation projections just about every six months, almost like clockwork.

Fiscal spending the only way out for Canada’s struggling economy?

October 29, 2015

Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau waves while accompanied by his wife Sophie Gregoire as he gives his victory speech after Canada's federal election in MontrealAfter sailing relatively smoothly through the choppy waters of the financial crisis and its after-effects, the Canadian economy is finally getting caught up in the global economic slowdown.