MacroScope

The final lap

A "Yes" campaign poster is displayed on the Isle of Lewis in the Outer Hebrides

Three opinion polls last night all put Scotland’s anti-independence vote at 52 percent, the secession campaign on 48. If accurate, the “Yes” camp will have to move heaven and earth in the next 24 hours to turn the tables despite having dramatically narrowed the gap.

The towering caveat is that no one knows if the polls are accurate and if not, in which direction they have got it wrong. The latest trio showed between 8 and 14 percent of Scotland’s 4.3 million voters at least say they are still undecided.

Before the day is out we will see at least three more opinion polls – the final verdicts before the real voting starts. As things stand, the aggregated poll of polls has the race slightly tighter – at 51 to 49 percent.

Here are the key things to look for beneath the headline figures:
1. Turnout. The polls consistently show the elderly are the most staunch “No” voters and will turn out in droves. That means turnout will have to be very high in the other demographics to offset them.
2. Look beneath the headline figures to the questions about whether people think Scotland and Scots would be financially better off as an independent country. Some recent polls have shown a jump in the number of people who think they won’t be.
3. Watch the “don’t know” count. It should start shrinking and support for independence will have to rise as it falls if the “Yes” camp is going to prevail.

The other great imponderable is whether there is a “shy” or “silent” no vote – people who are loath to admit in public that they fear the consequences of independence but will vote against in the privacy of the ballot box. That is utterly unmeasurable though analysis of previous referendums of this type around the world suggests that more often than not the vote for change represented in the polls hasn’t been delivered on the day.

Margin for error

A Union Flag and Scottish Saltire fly over Britain's Cabinet Office in central London

Another day, another Scottish opinion poll and this time a different message, but only slightly.

A Survation survey last night showed 53 percent of Scots would vote to remain in the UK, 47 for independence. Ten percent of the electorate remain undecided. That counters three recent polls which have shown a dead heat or slight lead for the Yes campaign. Given the margin for error – three points either way – they all suggest next Thursday’s vote is too close to call although hitherto, Survation has consistently put support for independence higher than other pollsters.

There is a chance that the dramatic narrowing of the polls – with one giving a lead for the Yes camp – has come too early for the nationalists as it makes all Scots realize that their votes count and concentrates minds. It is easy to vote for independence if you don’t think it’s going to happen and there is a week still to weigh up the consequences.

An almighty gamble

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron leaves Downing Street in London

Having woken up to the very real possibility of Scotland going it alone, the leaders of Britain’s main parties have scrapped their parliamentary business and headed north to campaign in what amounts to a huge gamble.

The “No” campaign has been criticized for many things – being too negative (though no is negative by definition), being too aloof, failing to address the hole’s in Alex Salmond’s manifesto. The question is whether it is too late to do anything about it. It is risky to deploy Prime Minister David Cameron who, by his own admission, is not catnip to the Scots.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is anything but a clear vote-winner either. The years when the Labour party ruled Britain with a raft of Scots in senior positions is gone. The party front bench now looks very English.

Too close to call

Cakes are seen at a tea-party organised by members of the group 'English Scots for YES' near Berwick-upon-Tweed on the border between England and Scotland

A second opinion poll in three days has put the Scottish independence vote as too close to call.

TNS gave the “No” vote 39 percent  support and “Yes” 38. Its last poll in late July gave the “No” campaign a 13-point lead. Taking only those who are certain to vote, the two camps are tied at 41 percent.

The figures look different to YouGov’s weekend poll which sent a jolt through London and Scotland. It gave the secessionists a 51-49 lead but the direction of travel is clear and with only nine days to that could be decisive.

What’s it all about, Mario?

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It’s ECB day and after Mario Draghi’s recent dramatic utterances, expectation for fresh action has grown, expectations which are likely largely to be dashed.

Draghi told the world’s central banking elite in Jackson Hole last month that market inflation expectations were falling markedly and the European Central Bank would use everything in its power to stabilize them in order to avoid a deflationary spiral. He also ripped up central banking orthodoxy by calling for more fiscal spending by governments at the same time as redoubling economic reform efforts. How to read that?

Two possibilities spring to mind. Either Draghi (who has talked with a number of EU leaders recently) thinks he can secure fresh a  commitment on structural reform and can use that to go back to his ECB colleagues to argue they should cross the ultimate Rubicon and start printing money in return.

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

BFor all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Not only that, but surprise news that two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted this month to hike Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent does not seem to have shaken the view that it will be early next year before rates go up.

The Reuters Poll consensus — which the BoE uses to brief the MPC on policy expectations and cites each month in the minutes — has concluded on each occasion since March that a UK rate hike is not going to happen until the first half of 2015. Before March, the view was that it was likely to take even longer.

Euro zone recovery snuffed out

A BMW logo is seen the wheel of a car in Mexico City

A glut of euro zone GDP data is landing confirming a markedly poor second quarter for the currency area.

The mighty German economy has shrunk by 0.2 percent on the quarter, undercutting the Bundesbank’s forecast of stagnation. Foreign trade and investment were notable weak spots and the signs are they may not improve soon.

France has fared little better, flatlining again in the second quarter. That has forced the French government to confront reality, saying it would miss its deficit target again this year and cutting its 2014 forecast for 1 percent growth in half. There was no mention of the 2015 goal when France’s public deficit is due to come into line with the EU’s 3 percent of GDP cap, but Finance Minister Michel Sapin said Paris would cut its deficit “at an appropriate pace”.

All eyes on Putin

Russia's President Vladimir Putin talks to reporters during a meeting in Brasilia

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his top security officials prior to visiting annexed Crimea on Thursday with members of his government.

One way or another, with Ukrainian government forces encircling the main pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk, matters are coming to a head. Putin must decide whether to up his support for the separatists in east Ukraine or back off.

Tens of thousands of Russian troops remain camped near the Ukraine border and a Russian convoy of trucks carrying tonnes of humanitarian aid is heading for  eastern Ukraine. Kiev says it would not allow the vehicles to cross into its territory and it and Western governments warned Moscow against any attempt to turn the operation into a military intervention by stealth in a region facing a humanitarian crisis after four months of warfare.

Still room for improvement with the BoE’s forward guidance, says IMF

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There was plenty of support for the Bank of England’s stance on interest rates from the International Monetary Fund in its latest report on the British economy.

But it seemed a little less sure on how forward guidance – the Bank’s cornerstone policy since Governor Mark Carney took charge last year – has fared so far.

While it still backed forward guidance as a step towards greater transparency, the IMF’s report posed two questions: How effective has forward guidance been, and what improvements could be made?

A dissenting voice

A train carrying the remains of the victims of Malaysia Airlines MH17 arrives in Kharkiv

Interesting intervention from former Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin late yesterday who warned that Russia risked isolation and having its efforts to modernize derailed.

That sort of internal criticism is rare but Kudrin has done so before without censure which suggests Vladimir Putin is – or has been – willing to hear it. Kudrin added that Moscow should not intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine.

EU foreign ministers came up with more promises of tougher action against Russia without quite showing the colour of their money. Meeting in Brussels they discussed restricting Russian access to European capital markets, defence and energy technology, asking the executive European Commission to draft proposals this week.