Bank of Japan reruns inflation downgrade script

October 30, 2015

BAfter over a decade-and-a-half of aggressive monetary easing through asset purchases, the Bank of Japan still has to revise down its inflation projections just about every six months, almost like clockwork.

Fear could lead Fed into a much more fearsome trap

September 18, 2015

Delaying its first rate hike in nearly a decade after taking a pass in June and July means the U.S. central bank may have stepped further away from an escape from zero rates and $3.7 trillion of asset purchases bloating its balance sheet.

This time, BOJ could wait and watch before coming to yen’s rescue

September 15, 2015

U.S. one-hundred dollar bill and Japanese 10,000 yen notes are spread in TokyoThe Japanese yen has strengthened unexpectedly by about 4 percent over the last month and it could rise further if the U.S. Federal Reserve delays a rate hike and the dollar weakens.

Japan inflation expectations wilting once again

September 9, 2015

Not againThe biggest attention grabber out of Japan is today’s 7.7% moonshot on the stock market, based on hopes of further central bank stimulus in Asia as well as an expected corporation tax cut over the next few years. Never mind that this comes just one day after the Nikkei joined many other major global stock indexes in wiping out its gains for the year.

Decision day in Israel

By Mike Peacock
March 17, 2015

Combination picture of Isaac Herzog, co-leader of the centre-left Zionist Union party, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Israelis are going to the polls with the last opinion polls suggesting momentum had shifted to opposition Zionist Union after weeks of running neck-and-neck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud.

Davos faces now customary global uncertainty

By Mike Peacock
January 21, 2015

Swiss special police officers observe the surrounding area from atop the roof of Davos Congress Hotel in Davos

The great and good are in Davos facing a rather uncertain landscape yet again (‘twas ever thus for the last seven years).

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

A Bank of England dovecote?

By Mike Peacock
November 12, 2014

Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chairman Mark Carney arrives for a news conference at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel

The Bank of England will produce its quarterly inflation report today. With wage growth still notable by its absence and inflation dropping to just 1.2 percent in September, noises from within the BoE suggest the timing of a first interest rate rise is heading further over the horizon.

Japan-style deflation in Europe getting harder to dismiss

February 13, 2014

To most people, the idea of falling prices sounds like a good thing. But it poses serious economic and financial risks – just ask the Japanese, who only now finally have the upper hand in a 20-year battle to drag their economy out of deflation.

A week before emerging-market turmoil, a prescient exchange on just how much the Fed cares

January 30, 2014


The last seven days has been a glaring example of fallout from the cross-border carry trade. That’s the sort of trade, well known in currency markets, where investors borrow funds in low-rate countries and invest them in higher-rate ones. Some $4 trillion is estimated to have flooded into emerging markets since the 2008 financial crisis to profit off the ultra accommodate policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Now that central banks in developed economies are looking to reverse course and eventually raise rates, that carry trade is unraveling fast, resulting in the brutal sell-off in emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina over the last week.