Time to get real?

By Mike Peacock
May 30, 2012

Spain’s plans to revive Bankia with state money and sort out its regions’ finances have well and truly unnerved the markets. It seems that Plan A — to inject state bonds straight into the stricken bank so that it could offer them to the ECB as collateral in return for cash — was roundly rejectd by the European Central Bank, so Madrid rapidly produced a second plan which will involve the government raising yet more money on the bond market, not helpful to its drive to cut debt.

Euro zone ying and yang

By Mike Peacock
May 28, 2012

The ying.
Sources told us last night that Spain may recapitalize stricken Bankia with government bonds in return for shares in the bank. That would presumably involve an up-front hit for Spain’s public finances (it is already striving to lop about 6 percentage points off its budget deficit in two years) which might be recouped at some point if the shares don’t disappear through the floor.
The ECB’s view of this will be crucial since the plan seems to involve the bank depositing the new bonds with the ECB as collateral in return for cash. If it cries foul, where would that leave Madrid?

Not for the faint-hearted

By Mike Peacock
May 25, 2012

With Spain’s banking system looking ever more parlous and the Damoclean Sword of Greek elections hanging over the financial markets, next week is not going to be for the faint-hearted.

More Greek elections?

By Mike Peacock
May 8, 2012

Attempts to form a Greek coalition government appear to be running into the sand with no one prepared to dance with the two mainstream parties, New Democracy and PASOK, raising the probability of a fresh round of elections with all the uncertainty that will entail. The far-left Socialist Coalition will have a stab at forming an administration today but doesn’t really have the numbers to do it.