U.S. recession’s ending. Now what?
The latest Blue Chip survey of economists is out this morning, and there’s general agreement on one point: the longest recession since the Great Depression is about to end, if it hasn’t already. Some 87 percent of the economists surveyed thought the National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually declare the recession ended prior to the end of September.
What happens next is up for debate. The survey found that about 16 percent expect a strong V-shaped recovery. An equal percentage expects a W-shaped double-dip recession. Most economists — about 65 percent — were lumped in the middle, looking for a long, slow U-shaped recovery.
They also seem to think that last Friday’s jobs report, which showed the jobless rate dipped for the first time in 15 months, was just a head-fake. The consensus view is that unemployment peaks at 10.2 percent, compared with the current level of 9.4 percent, and nearly half thought that level would be reached in the first quarter of 2010.
So, what’s your take? Pick a letter, any letter, but if you choose something other than L, V, U or W, you’ll have to explain it.
in reply to the guy that says ‘what do they know’ and says that these economists didn’t predict the recession.. some didn’t but one of the economists that was part of this poll definitely did – and he predicted it exactly: Nouriel Roubini – he’s one who is predicting a double dip recession. What I’d ALSO like to point out – so far these economists were dead on about unemployment.. they said it would peak at 10.2% and so far the signs say they were dead right – actually if it doesn’t double dip – they were uncanny with that prediction… so folks, they aint as dumb as you think.. you’d do well to pay attention. Myself I still think we will have a sluggish V recovery but not a double dip – but I’m just an optimist.. not an economist