Sweet spot for UK pay could be just the nectar the economy needs

September 16, 2015

RTR309S7.jpgBritish workers have hit a sweet spot with wages rising much faster than near-zero inflation, suggesting the economy could gain further momentum as consumers spend their spare cash.

Does the Bank of England really follow the Fed?

July 21, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“Daft” is how outgoing Bank of England policymaker David Miles described the idea that Britain’s central bank would have to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve before hiking interest rates.

RIP forward guidance (2013 – 2015)

February 12, 2015

Today marked the first time since its launch that forward guidance wasn’t mentioned by the Bank of England in its quarterly inflation report, or by Governor Mark Carney in his opening remarks.

Major central banks set to go their own way, with some risk

January 9, 2015
Real interest rates of world's major central banks

Real interest rates of world’s major central banks

The world’s major central banks have long followed the same general flight path, guided by the economic winds of growth, inflation and financial markets. It has worked pretty well for policymakers in the United States, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom: moving together to tighten or loosen monetary policy makes things more predictable for citizens, businesses and investors. It also serves as buffer to any volatile currency movements, at least among developed economies. But six years after the worst recession in decades, this could be the year central bankers split off and – with some risk – go their own way.

More Brits than ever have no idea where rates are going

December 5, 2014

Bank of England Governor Carney listens during the bank's quarterly inflation report news conference at the Bank of England in London

So much for forward guidance. More Britons have no idea where interest rates are heading than since records began 15 years ago, according to the latest Bank of England/GfK NOP survey.

Doves taking flight on when BoE to hike

November 17, 2014

A turtledove flies on the beach front in Nice

Doubts over just how soon the Bank of England can raise interest rates have been growing in recent weeks as Britain’s recovery looks in danger, inflation remains stubbornly low and concerns about the euro zone intensify.

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

August 20, 2014

BFor all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Key to UK interest rate hike, pay data, still a muddle

July 8, 2014


Bank of England rate setters meeting this week should be in cordial agreement that Britain’s economy is growing at a decent pace, and that price pressures look mostly in check at the moment.

Why should the Bank of England hike rates when it can baby-step?

January 17, 2014

When the Bank of England decides to start hiking interest rates, it may find that its standard 25 and 50 basis point interest rate moves of old are too blunt a tool for Britain’s delicately-poised economic recovery.