Is a one-way bet on the dollar rising still such a safe bet?

February 4, 2015

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

Borrowing in dollars is like playing “Russian roulette”, India’s central bank chief Raghuran Rajan said on Bloomberg TV this week.

Low-inflation wave reaches Mexico

January 22, 2015

A Mexican soccer fan watches a large screen broadcasting the 2014 World Cup soccer match between Mexico and Cameroon, in downtown Monterrey

Just as ECB President Mario Draghi announced a massive bond-buying program to revive Europe’s economy and fend off deflation fears, news of shockingly low inflation popped up elsewhere in the globe: consumer prices in Mexico dropped 0.19 percent in early January, far below all 19 forecasts in a Reuters poll.

Brazil’s GDP outlook for 2015 gets slashed again. But is it low enough?

January 16, 2015

Brazil's Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, pictured through a red LED light of a camera, reacts during a news conference at Brazil's Central Bank in BrasiliaMarket forecasts for Brazil’s economic growth this year have been falling steadily for months, reaching a meager 0.5 percent in Reuters latest quarterly poll published on Thursday. One year ago, a similar survey predicted growth of 2.5 percent in 2015.

Brazil may have escaped recession, but not the minefield

November 26, 2014

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Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.

Brazil set to release long-overdue jobless rate just as election race heats up

September 25, 2014

Workers at a General Motors vehicle factory listen during a meeting to discuss their reactions to an announcement of plans to put some 1,000 workers on paid leave, in Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil’s unemployment rate has been a mystery for months: a strike in the country’s statistics agency, ironically enough, disrupted its main job market survey. The numbers will finally come out in a few hours, less than two weeks before a tight presidential election, and will help voters understand just how bad the recently-confirmed recession has been.

Brazil’s economy: not as bad as it looked?

July 29, 2014

Brazil's President Rousseff looks on during a news conference to present the balance of the 2014 World Cup in Brasilia

Brazil’s economy may have grown by 3 percent in 2012, three times as much as originally reported, according to an ongoing review of GDP data that could solve one of the biggest economic puzzles since the global financial crisis.

El Niño may not give Brazil much to worry about on food prices

May 27, 2014

File photo of loaded soybean truck for BRAZIL SOY.

Now that Brazilian food prices are finally settling down, it looks like El Niño will strike back in a couple of months to throw the world’s weather into disarray.

Don’t stop fighting inflation, banks tell Brazil policymakers

May 14, 2014

Brazil's Central Bank President Tombini reacts during a ceremony to announce Measures of Consumer Protection at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia

A small piece of good news on Brazil’s inflation rate last week probably gave the central bank its best pretext yet to finally stop raising interest rates after more than one year of non-stop increases. But economists still think it’s too early to proclaim “mission accomplished”.

Firing up Brazil’s economy

February 13, 2014

A hot, dry spell in southeastern Brazil has pushed up energy prices, stretched government finances and raised the threat of water rationing in its largest city, Sao Paulo, just months before it hosts one of the world’s largest sport events, the soccer World Cup.

Brazil’s need for dollars to shrink in 2014 – but the long-term view remains bleak

January 29, 2014

Brazil’s current account deficit will probably narrow this year. That may sound as a reassuring (or rather optimistic) forecast after the recent sharp sell-off in emerging markets, which prompted Turkey to raise interest rates dramatically to 12 percent from 7.75 percent in a single shot on Tuesday. But that was the outlook of three major banks – HSBC, Credit Suisse and Barclays - in separate research published earlier this week.