High Brazil services inflation is hinting at even higher interest rates

May 11, 2015

Brazil's Finance Minister Joaquim Levy delivers a speech during a meeting with businessmen of the France-Brazil Chamber of Commerce in Sao Paulo

Brazil’s monthly inflation rate eased below 1 percent for the first time this year in April and inflation expectations for 2016 have dropped for the first time in two and a half months.

Emerging market stocks look more resilient to a Fed rate hike

April 9, 2015

Members of the Legio X Fretensis (Malta) re-enactment group take part in a display of ancient Roman army life at Fort Rinella in Kalkara, outside Valletta

Expectations may have been pushed to later this year for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates, but a repeat of another steep sell-off in emerging market stocks appears unlikely as much has already been priced in – and because of the stronger dollar.

Brazil gets a vote of confidence

April 7, 2015

Boys play soccer on a driftwood soccer court, on the banks of the Rio Negro or Black River in Catalao community near Manaus

Shorting Brazil is no longer the favorite sport of analysts and traders, judging by recent market trends and comments.

Brazil’s job market hints at more painful downturn

March 19, 2015

A job promoter sits close to list of job offers posted along a main street in downtown Sao Paulo

The rapid erosion of Brazil’s job market is taking most economists by surprise, an analysis of Reuters Polls data shows, in a worrying sign that already-grim expectations for Latin America’s largest economy have not been pessimistic enough.

Brazil’s shock therapy against inflation

March 3, 2015

Brazil's Central Bank President Alexandre Tombini reacts during the first ministerial meeting in Brasilia

Brazil’s central bank’s two-day policy meeting kicks off later on Tuesday with all bets placed on a fourth straight interest rate increase, despite growing consensus that the country is headed for its worst economic recession in 25 years.

Is a one-way bet on the dollar rising still such a safe bet?

February 4, 2015

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

Borrowing in dollars is like playing “Russian roulette”, India’s central bank chief Raghuran Rajan said on Bloomberg TV this week.

Low-inflation wave reaches Mexico

January 22, 2015

A Mexican soccer fan watches a large screen broadcasting the 2014 World Cup soccer match between Mexico and Cameroon, in downtown Monterrey

Just as ECB President Mario Draghi announced a massive bond-buying program to revive Europe’s economy and fend off deflation fears, news of shockingly low inflation popped up elsewhere in the globe: consumer prices in Mexico dropped 0.19 percent in early January, far below all 19 forecasts in a Reuters poll.

Brazil’s GDP outlook for 2015 gets slashed again. But is it low enough?

January 16, 2015

Brazil's Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, pictured through a red LED light of a camera, reacts during a news conference at Brazil's Central Bank in BrasiliaMarket forecasts for Brazil’s economic growth this year have been falling steadily for months, reaching a meager 0.5 percent in Reuters latest quarterly poll published on Thursday. One year ago, a similar survey predicted growth of 2.5 percent in 2015.

Brazil may have escaped recession, but not the minefield

November 26, 2014

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Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over.┬áBut a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.