Market forecasts for Brazil’s economic growth this year have been falling steadily for months, reaching a meager 0.5 percent in Reuters latest quarterly poll published on Thursday. One year ago, a similar survey predicted growth of 2.5 percent in 2015.
Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.
Brazil’s unemployment rate has been a mystery for months: a strike in the country’s statistics agency, ironically enough, disrupted its main job market survey. The numbers will finally come out in a few hours, less than two weeks before a tight presidential election, and will help voters understand just how bad the recently-confirmed recession has been.
Now that Brazilian food prices are finally settling down, it looks like El Niño will strike back in a couple of months to throw the world’s weather into disarray.
A small piece of good news on Brazil’s inflation rate last week probably gave the central bank its best pretext yet to finally stop raising interest rates after more than one year of non-stop increases. But economists still think it’s too early to proclaim “mission accomplished”.
A hot, dry spell in southeastern Brazil has pushed up energy prices, stretched government finances and raised the threat of water rationing in its largest city, Sao Paulo, just months before it hosts one of the world’s largest sport events, the soccer World Cup.
Brazil’s current account deficit will probably narrow this year. That may sound as a reassuring (or rather optimistic) forecast after the recent sharp sell-off in emerging markets, which prompted Turkey to raise interest rates dramatically to 12 percent from 7.75 percent in a single shot on Tuesday. But that was the outlook of three major banks – HSBC, Credit Suisse and Barclays - in separate research published earlier this week.
from Global Investing:
Are Mr and Mrs Watanabe preparing to return to emerging markets in a big way?
Mom and pop Japanese investors, collectively been dubbed the Watanabes, last month snapped up a large volume of uridashi bonds (bonds in foreign currencies marketed to small-time Japanese investors), and sales of Brazilian real uridashi rose last month to the highest since July 2010, Barclays analysts say, citing official data.