UK inflation is about to take off – but by how much?

September 1, 2016

Lurking beneath the surprisingly strong rebound in manufacturing shown by the latest Markit/CIPS PMI, there were clear signs that inflation is about to shoot higher –and perhaps in a big way.

British first quarter growth probably not as bad as reported

April 27, 2016

A man walks up steps in the City of LondonBritish economic growth slowed to 0.4 percent at the start of the year, a preliminary release showed as expected on Wednesday, but the real picture may well be better.

Don’t bank on Brexit saving Britain billions

March 2, 2016

File photograph shows an employee walking over a mosaic depicting pound sterling symbols on the floor of the front hall of the Bank of England in LondonOne of the advantages trumpeted by those hoping Britain votes to leave the European Union is the savings the country would make in not having to pay the billions of pounds in annual membership.

Beware the cracks appearing in British consumer sentiment

February 26, 2016

GfK consumer confidence

A slight tremor rumbled through a key pillar of British economic growth – household spending – as consumer confidence slipped this month to its lowest level since December 2014.

EU vote casts shadow over Britain as 2016 kicks off

January 8, 2016

At this stage, it is hard to quantify how a planned referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union is impacting investor sentiment and the outlook for business investment. But there is little doubt it will influence the timing of the Bank of England’s first interest rate hike in nearly a decade and how sterling trades this year.

Wayward guidance: More Britons than ever don’t know where rates are headed

December 11, 2015

So much for forward guidance. The largest proportion of Britons on record — almost a quarter — have “no idea” where interest rates are heading over the next 12 months, according to the Bank of England’s quarterly survey of the public’s views on the economy.

UK trade misses target again. It’s time to look at the targets.

December 10, 2015

Another month, another round of disappointing British trade data.

Given it happens with such regularity, economists might be forgiven for viewing Thursday’s news of a widening goods trade deficit as a routine addition to Britain’s murky trade outlook.

With such similar inflation, how far behind the Fed can the BoE be?

November 18, 2015

RTR4OY3Z.jpgNot long ago, the big debate was over who would raise rates first, the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. Now with the Fed giving clear signals it’s on the brink of hiking and the BoE appearing to be pushing that day further off into the future, one could naturally conclude that the inflation outlook in both economies is vastly different.

Are the PMIs a smoking gun for the BoE’s hawks?

November 4, 2015

Might the latest survey of British services companies be the clincher for Bank of England policymakers who’ve been tempted to vote for higher interest rates?

Nailed-on for a stronger UK services PMI after factory surge?

November 2, 2015

A surprisingly strong surge in British manufacturing growth last month has left a few economists scratching their heads. Is it a one-off? Could a manufacturing recovery really appear out of seemingly nowhere?