While ECB officials have struggled to talk down rising money market rates that point to an undesirable early tightening of monetary policy, they have had more luck influencing market economists in Reuters polls.
That’s significant because both euro zone central banks and the Bank of England use Reuters polls as a measure of interest rate expectations.
A comparison of the same 43 respondents who took part in two Reuters polls – one taken just before the ECB adopted forward guidance in July, and one before this month’s meeting – shows how the new policy has swayed economists. (see chart – click to enlarge)
The consensus that the main refinancing rate will stay on hold until at least 2015 has firmed since forward guidance.