Say it with confidence: Consumer surveys as a leading indicator of jobs

September 5, 2013

It turns out people are better employment forecasters than economists. A report from New York Fed economists finds that confidence measures gleaned from consumer surveys are very tightly correlated with the path of U.S. employment.

Hopefulness, not confidence, is spreading through the euro zone

February 22, 2013

Optimism in Germany is roaring and consumers across the euro zone are starting to become less gloomy. But the latest hard economic data are a reminder of the difference between confidence that things are going to get better, and the hope that they will.

Conflicting signals for U.S. economy

December 27, 2011

As 2011 draws to an unspectacular close, U.S. economic data are sending thoroughly mixed messages about the near-term path of the recovery. That’s not particularly reassuring given the still enormous risks emanating from Europe – but it’s better than the unequivocal weakness that prevailed during the first half of the year.

from Global Investing:

Emerging consumers’ pain to spell gains for stocks in staples

September 1, 2011

Food and electricity bills are high. The cost of filling up at the petrol station isn't coming down much either. The U.S. economy is in trouble and suddenly the job isn't as secure as it seemed. Maybe that designer handbag and new car aren't such good ideas after all.

from Global Investing:

Poor investor confidence – or is it?

February 24, 2010

The latest State Street investor confidence index bears some scrutiny. The overall index dropped in February which would seem to be in line with other sentiment indicators such as The Conference Board's consumer confidence index and the German Ifo on business thinking.