Talking Turkey

By Mike Peacock
March 11, 2015

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a welcoming ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Ankara

Turkish Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci will brief President Tayyip Erdogan today about sharp falls in the lira of about 12 percent versus the dollar this year which have not been helped by Erdogan’s criticism of monetary policy.

ECB to fill in the QE gaps

By Mike Peacock
March 5, 2015

ECB President Draghi arrives to take part in a plenary debate on the ECB's Annual Report 2013 at the EU Parliament in Brussels

The European Central Bank is holding its monthly meeting – an offsite gathering in Cyprus – and is about to commence its quantitative easing bond-buying programme.

Euro zone data starting to surprise on the upside

By Mike Peacock
March 4, 2015

A truck passes through an electronic toll gate on the A10 highway south of Berlin

A day before the European Central Bank’s monthly meeting, service sector PMI surveys for euro zone countries will be scrutinized to see if they add to a developing trend of above-forecast economic data.

Negative inflation to herald QE launch

By Mike Peacock
March 2, 2015

US dollars and euros banknotes are seen in this illustration photo taken at a change bureau in Paris

The European Central Bank is about to start printing money. Euro zone data today will show why.

Restive Bundestag to approve Greek bailout extension

By Mike Peacock
February 27, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel, members of government and parliament observe a minute of silence during a session of the lower house of parliament Bundestag in Berlin

Germany’s parliament will vote today on the extension of Greece’s bailout by four months and will duly back it though we can expect some grumbling from a clutch of lawmakers.

Long night of talks in Brussels and Minsk

By Mike Peacock
February 12, 2015

Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem greets Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis during an extraordinary euro zone Finance Ministers meeting in Brussels

A long night of talks in Brussels and Minsk.

Despite going into the early hours of the morning, euro zone finance ministers failed to reach agreement on a way forward with their Greek counterpart and will try again on Monday.

Rampant inflation to keep Russian central bank tight

By Mike Peacock
January 30, 2015

Russian roubles are seen in this illustration picture taken in Moscow

Russia’s central bank meets having shoved interest rates up to an eye-watering 17 percent late last year.
The central bank has said rates can only come down if inflation was trending lower. It was running above 11 percent last month and the government expects it to peak at 17 percent.

Whatever it takes or whatever it can get away with?

By Mike Peacock
January 14, 2015

ECB President Draghi addresses during ECB news conference in Frankfurt

Markets are beginning to ponder just how definitive the European Central Bank may be next week in launching quantitative easing. One reason is today’s ruling at the European Court of Justice.

Major central banks set to go their own way, with some risk

January 9, 2015
Real interest rates of world's major central banks

Real interest rates of world’s major central banks

The world’s major central banks have long followed the same general flight path, guided by the economic winds of growth, inflation and financial markets. It has worked pretty well for policymakers in the United States, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom: moving together to tighten or loosen monetary policy makes things more predictable for citizens, businesses and investors. It also serves as buffer to any volatile currency movements, at least among developed economies. But six years after the worst recession in decades, this could be the year central bankers split off and – with some risk – go their own way.

Sub-zero inflation

By Mike Peacock
January 7, 2015

A sign announcing a discount is pictured at an Electroniki retail chain shop in Athens

Following a dramatic fall in the price of oil, now down at $50 per barrel from above $115 in the middle of last year, euro zone inflation figures for December are likely to turn negative for the first time since 2009.