Economists revise down third quarter U.S. GDP forecasts as business investment missing in action

October 25, 2012

Richard Leong contributed to this post

U.S.durable goods orders rebounded a solid 9.9 percent in September following the prior month’s plunge. However, a proxy for business investment was essentially stuck in neutral. This was sufficiently worrying to JP Morgan economists to force them to revise down their estimates for third quarter U.S. economic growth down to 1.6 percent from 1.8 percent. Barclays economists also marked down their Q3 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage point, putting it at 1.8 percent. The Reuters consensus forecast for the number, due out on Friday, is 1.9 percent.

Economic recovery may not be a durable good

February 28, 2012

Ouch. That was the general sentiment after this morning’s strikingly weak durable goods report for January, which suggested the Federal Reserve was right to flag slowing business investment as a worry in its January statement.