Air getting thin in Frankfurt: Next week at the ECB

November 13, 2015

The supermoon is seen next to the air-traffic warning light illuminated headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, early morning September 28, 2015. Sky-watchers around the world were treated when the shadow of Earth cast a reddish glow on the moon, the result of rare combination of an eclipse with the closest full moon of the year. The total "supermoon" lunar eclipse, also known as a "blood moon" is one that appears bigger and brighter than usual as it reaches the point in its orbit that is closest to Earth.  REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach - RTX1SSIR

The higher you climb, the thinner the oxygen. As it prints more money to help the economy, the European Central Bank has climbed ever steeper. Yet prices, a barometer of economic health, are dangerously close to reversing. If that happens, and shoppers postpone big buys or companies keep a lid on wages, we could see Japan-like stagnation. To avoid that, the ECB is set to top up bond-buying.

Prepare for a razor-thin rate cut from the ECB in June. But what will it achieve?

May 9, 2014

RTR3OBCB.jpgA consensus appears to be slowly building for a carpaccio-slice interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next month.

More hope than conviction for euro zone inflation rebound

April 29, 2014

ECB President Mario Draghi has a friend in euro zone economists of late. They tend to line up and take his view, at least when it comes to forecasting inflation.

Euro zone inflation falls again; economists base ECB rate cut calls on deja vu

February 4, 2014

Euro zone inflation has dipped again and some forecasters are hedging their bets on the policy response by saying the European Central Bank could either cut rates this week or sometime in the next two months.

Another backhand volley from forward guidance

November 8, 2013

Forward guidance is quickly proving to be rather backward.

While it’s a favourite game of every punter who’s not paid to make predictions to trash the track record of those who are, just about everyone who follows the European Central Bank was stunned by the timing of its decision to cut rates on Thursday.

ECB rate cut takes markets by surprise – time to crack Draghi’s code

By Eva Taylor
November 7, 2013

After today’s surprise ECB move it is safe to forget the code words former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet never grew tired of using – monitoring closely, monitoring very closely, strong vigilance, rate hike. (No real code language ever emerged for rate cuts, probably because there were only a few and that was towards the end of Trichet’s term.)

Reading the ECB runes, March edition

March 15, 2012

Economists seeking insight into the kind of analysis the European Central Bank is using to support its policy decisions can get hints from its monthly bulletin. Not for everyone, but here’s what is in March’s edition: