MacroScope

Despite Mario Draghi’s game changer, or potential game changer, the coming week’s events still have the power to shape the path of the euro zone debt crisis in a quite decisive way, regardless of the European Central Bank’s offer to buy as many government bonds as needed to buy politicians time to do their work.

The nuclear event would be the German constitutional court ruling on Wednesday that the bloc’s new ESM rescue fund should not come into being, which would leave the ECB’s plans in tatters since its intervention requires a country to seek help from the rescue funds first and the ESM’s predecessor, the EFSF, looks distinctly threadbare. That is unlikely to happen given the court’s previous history but it could well add conditions demanding greater German parliamentary scrutiny and even a future referendum on deeper European integration. For the time being though, the markets are likely to take a binary view. ‘Yes’ to the ESM good, ‘No’ very bad.

Dutch elections on the same day look to have been robbed of some of their potential drama with the firebrand hard-left socialists now slipping in the polls and the fiscally conservative Liberals neck-and-neck with the likeminded centre-left Labour party. But there are no guarantees and Germany could yet be robbed of one of its staunchest allies in the debt crisis debate.

There’s much more…
At the end of the week European Union finance ministers gather in Cyprus with a separate meeting of the euro zoners who really count set for the Friday. Spanish officials had suggested that this could be the venue to discuss the details of a sovereign bailout which would offer bond-buying help but the signs now are that Prime Minister Rajoy is dragging his feet in an effort to have as few of the strings that the ECB says is necessary attached as possible. The fall in Spanish borrowing costs thanks to Draghi’s intervention also takes a little of the heat off.

But time is pressing. Spain faces a refinancing crunch in late October so unless Mario Draghi’s verbal intervention is enough to suppress Spanish yields – which may work for a while but probably not for long – it may be tipped into seeking help.

Having not enjoyed a summer lull for a good few years, we might as well take advantage of this one which appears set to last for another couple of weeks yet (famous last words).

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro zone continues to underpin markets who view a litany of grim economic evidence as increasing the likelihood of further central bank action, not just from Europe but China and the United States too, thereby leaving them somewhat becalmed. (Remember the Greenspan put?)

The ECB chief’s intervention remains strictly in the realms of the rhetorical for now. The proof will come in September at the earliest – an ECB policy meeting in the first week is likely to set out the parameters as to how it might act to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs, a week later the German constitutional court rules on the viability of the euro zone’s permanent rescue fund, then euro zone finance ministers gather in Cyprus for a key meeting. Also in September, the troika of Greek lenders will return to decide whether Athens has done enough to secure its next bailout tranche.

Brace yourself for a blizzard of numbers.

EU finance ministers gathered in Copenhagen are poised to decide precisely how much firepower their new rescue fund – to be launched mid-year – will have. A draft communiqué suggests that as of mid-2013, presuming no new bailouts have been required in the interim, the combined lending ceiling of the future ESM and existing EFSF bailout funds will be set at 700 billion euros (500 billion pledged to the ESM plus the roughly 200 billion already committed to Greek, Irish and Portuguese rescue programmes).

Up to mid-2013, if 700 billion proves to be insufficient — i.e. someone else needs bailing out — euro zone leaders will be able to bolster it with the 240 billion euros as yet unused in the EFSF, according to the draft, although German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said last night that 800 billion should be the absolute limit.

Sorry, there’s more. Because the ESM will not have its full 500 billion euros capacity on day one – it will build up over time – the real available figure for the next year is more like 640 billion euros.
Confused? You should be.

New German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is winning over his European Union colleagues with a commitment to reduce Germany’s public deficit at his debut meeting of EU finance officials.************ ”I have great confidence in colleague Schaeuble,” Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said on arrival for the Ecofin meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.******Germany expects its deficit to hit 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, and roughly 6 percent in 2010, double the European Union limit of 3 percent.******But the veteran of German politics, a tax lawyer, convinced other EU finance ministers he would put Germany’s public finances in order. The 67-year-old told reporters he expected the Commission to propose that Germany would get it deficit within the EU limit in 2013.******”I think when one listens to Minister Schaeuble, one immediately has the impression one is listening to a very credible politician,” European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said after a meeting late on Monday of euro area finance officials, the so-called Eurogroup.******Schaeuble, in a wheelchair since he was shot and nearly killed by a mentally ill man at a campaign rally in 1990, is seen as one of the most talented German politicians of his generation and may have become chancellor himself had he not become ensnared in the funding scandal that damaged his Christian Democrats (CDU) and former mentor Helmut Kohl a decade ago.******He was not Merkel’s first choice for finance minister but by picking him last month she electrified German media because Schaeuble is expected to be a forceful and possibly uncomfortable presence for Merkel in a cabinet largely devoid of strong personalities.******Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado said Schaeuble showed a strong commitment to respecting the EU’s deficit rules, enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact. “I don’t think there was any doubt on our part as to his absolute commitment to comply with the provisions of that pact,” she said after Monday’s Eurogroup.