Tight consensus on China’s growth rate not reflecting real range of opinion

July 16, 2014

AChina’s economy, even to a non-specialist given a few minutes to stop and think, is clearly extremely difficult to measure.

India is in a cloud of economic optimism but its industrial data are in a permanent fog

August 15, 2013

Optimism the Indian economy will soon recover, despite no sign that it is anywhere near doing so, has increasingly led forecasters to overestimate industrial production growth.

Still not thinking the very thinkable on Britain’s future

February 20, 2013

Mark these words. Not only is Britain going to avoid a triple-dip recession, but the economy won’t shrink again as far as the eye can see.

The euro zone: choose your own adventure

October 15, 2012

Forecasts about the future for the euro zone economy are starting to resemble a multiple-choice novel. Are you an economist working for an Anglo-Saxon institution? Then turn to p.65 — “Recession for the euro zone”. A German bank? Go to p.80 — “Happy days are here again!”

India inflation consistently tough to pin down

September 4, 2012

High inflation is a drag on economic growth in the world’s second most populous country and matters immensely to over 400 million people, or over a third of India’s total population, who struggle to earn enough to feed their families three meals a day.

U-turns aplenty in predicting U.S. jobs growth

July 5, 2012

 

The past year of forecasting U.S. payroll growth marks a bumpy road of U-turns on the timing of an elusive turning point to sustainable recovery, an analysis of Reuters polls shows.

U.S. jobs data marks gloomy hat-trick for economists

June 1, 2012

By Sarmista Sen and Sumanta Dey

 

Economists predicting jobs growth in the United States, or rather the lack of it, scored an unfortunate hat-trick on Friday – vastly overestimating the rise in payrolls for three consecutive months.

A very British excuse

July 26, 2011

This time it was the royal wedding. When the economy shrank unexpectedly late last year, it was the bad weather. If Britain’s economy again struggles to generate growth in the current quarter, perhaps it will be blamed on the new series of ‘The Apprentice’.

Another shocker on the way for UK growth?

July 25, 2011

Could British economic growth figures for the second quarter mark another shocker for bank economists?