Brazil may have escaped recession, but not the minefield

November 26, 2014

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Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

U.S. growth back in bloom: most accurate Q1 GDP forecasters

May 30, 2014

PMost are convinced, including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, that the U.S. economy has already warmed up significantly from a growth deep freeze at the start of the year.

Drop in German investor morale may have called the peak in growth

May 13, 2014

A BMW employee assembles a BMW motorcycle at the company's factory in BerlinEurope’s growth engine may be on the verge of gearing down, according to an indicator of German investor morale that recorded its biggest drop in one and a half years on Tuesday.

from Lawrence Summers:

Britain and the limits of austerity

By Lawrence Summers
May 5, 2014

The Bank of England is seen in the City of London

The British economy has experienced the most rapid growth in the G7 over the last few months. It increased at an annual rate of more than 3 percent in the last quarter -- even as the U.S. economy barely grew, continental Europe remained in the doldrums and Japan struggled to maintain momentum in the face of a major new valued added tax increase.

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

April 30, 2014

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.

Oh là là, quelle surprise for the French economy

February 14, 2014

French economic growth unexpectedly picked up to 0.3 percent in the final three months of last year, welcome news and a rare positive shock for some particularly gloomy forecasters who were looking for shrinkage or no growth at all.

Why are US corporate profits so high? Because wages are so low

January 24, 2014

U.S. businesses have never had it so good.

Corporate cash piles have never been bigger, either in dollar terms or as a share of the economy.

The Bank of Canada is probably not ready to seriously consider cutting rates — yet

January 22, 2014

With all signs showing the Canadian economic miracle is fading, the Bank of Canada is understandably starting to sound more dovish. The Canadian dollar has got a whiff of that, down about 10 percent from where it was this time last year.

Small rays of hope brightened Canada’s economic outlook last week

May 6, 2013

 All data released last week point to a far better first quarter growth in Canada than previously expected, prompting economists to revise up their predictions.