Potholes could be dead ahead in the road soon after Fed rate hike

November 20, 2015

Patches on top of patches covering potholes litter a road in Sonoma County, California, May 9, 2013. Harrison, a local resident and attorney, is part of a grass-roots campaign to fix the crumbling roads of Sonoma County, which is struggling with the same type of government financial crisis that has driven California cities such as Stockton and San Bernardino into bankruptcy. Picture taken May 9, 2013.   REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach   (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TRAVEL) - RTX1053C

The Federal Reserve’s planned smooth and gradual rate hike path may be bumpier than anticipated if U.S. economic growth over the next several months and punishingly cold winter weather follow a well-established recent pattern.

Murky data fuel doubt over where emerging markets really stand

October 2, 2015

European Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Moscovici and IMF Managing Director Lagarde speak as they wait for a group photo of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in AnkaraIf emerging markets are to lead global economic performance one again as they did in recent years, an important foundation will be to convince as many people as possible that reported growth data are as accurate as they can possibly be.

India’s central bank nearing policy crossroads

June 11, 2015

Traffic moves at busy intersection in New DelhiThe Reserve Bank of India is facing a fork in the road for the first time since Governor Raghuram Rajan took office amid much fanfare and started targeting inflation as the central bank’s primary mandate.

Brazil’s GDP outlook for 2015 gets slashed again. But is it low enough?

January 16, 2015

Brazil's Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, pictured through a red LED light of a camera, reacts during a news conference at Brazil's Central Bank in BrasiliaMarket forecasts for Brazil’s economic growth this year have been falling steadily for months, reaching a meager 0.5 percent in Reuters latest quarterly poll published on Thursday. One year ago, a similar survey predicted growth of 2.5 percent in 2015.

Brazil may have escaped recession, but not the minefield

November 26, 2014


Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

U.S. growth back in bloom: most accurate Q1 GDP forecasters

May 30, 2014

PMost are convinced, including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, that the U.S. economy has already warmed up significantly from a growth deep freeze at the start of the year.

Drop in German investor morale may have called the peak in growth

May 13, 2014

A BMW employee assembles a BMW motorcycle at the company's factory in BerlinEurope’s growth engine may be on the verge of gearing down, according to an indicator of German investor morale that recorded its biggest drop in one and a half years on Tuesday.

from Lawrence Summers:

Britain and the limits of austerity

By Lawrence Summers
May 5, 2014

The Bank of England is seen in the City of London

The British economy has experienced the most rapid growth in the G7 over the last few months. It increased at an annual rate of more than 3 percent in the last quarter -- even as the U.S. economy barely grew, continental Europe remained in the doldrums and Japan struggled to maintain momentum in the face of a major new valued added tax increase.

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

April 30, 2014

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.