MacroScope

Allocation to herd: 100 percent

They’re bleating and buying. And you had better not let them run you over.

The latest Reuters surveys of global asset managers confirm what we’ve all been watching over the past month: a mad rush out of safe havens and into stock markets. There seems to be little else to report out of financial markets.

That stampede, particularly into U.S. shares by U.S. money managers, clocked the single biggest rise in equity allocations since at least 2007, before the financial crisis began, according to the latest Reuters poll data. The rush into global stocks by investment firms all over the world was the biggest in at least three years.

Other reports are saying the same thing.

What is more puzzling, other than a desperate need for change, is why.

It’s clear that most people any way connected to debates in financial markets are tired of all the doom and gloom and don’t mind taking a more positive view. But is that enough?

The euro zone crisis has not just ebbed. It seems to have gone practically dormant. (Never mind that more than half of young Spaniards haven’t got a job. Or that we ought to be wary of calling an end to things that once seemed like they would never stop.)

The U.S. property market is showing some signs of life, with widespread price rises. (Never mind that the economy shrank in the final months of 2012 for the first time since it escaped from recession in 2009. Or that political gridlock is clearly damaging business and job prospects).

Spy-in-the-Sky Data

Tuesday’s release of U.S. retail sales data could be more interesting than usual. Of course, it will give a hint about latest U.S. consumer spending patterns. But it may also give some idea of the effectiveness of a decidedly 21st century economic model — satellite data collecting. MallThomson Reuters Proprietary Research reported in late November that remote sensing metrics of U.S. shopping mall car parks correlate well with same-store sales data. Essentially, looking down on malls and seeing how many cars there are could give an early view of what the sales are likely to be. The conclusion from looking at the 10 weeks prior to the Black Friday, post-Thanksgiving weekend and comparing it with 2008 and 2009,  was that car park traffic in November points to stronger same-store sales. The monthly fill rate — the percentage of car park places – peaked at 53.0 percent on Black Friday, compared with 46.6 percent a year earlier. An index used by the Thomson Reuters team to gauge retail sales, was up 3.5 percent for November, compared with 0.5 percent a year earlier and -7.8 percent in November 2008.