Forecasts for the euro zone depend more on head office location than analysis

June 27, 2013

Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.

Yellen likely to replace Bernanke at Fed, but beware “overwhelming” top picks

June 12, 2013

Reuters has just published a poll of economists that shows Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen is the overwhelming favorite pick for President Obama to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman next year.

Small rays of hope brightened Canada’s economic outlook last week

May 6, 2013

 All data released last week point to a far better first quarter growth in Canada than previously expected, prompting economists to revise up their predictions.

Still not thinking the very thinkable on Britain’s future

February 20, 2013

Mark these words. Not only is Britain going to avoid a triple-dip recession, but the economy won’t shrink again as far as the eye can see.

Ignore the noise around Britain’s GDP figures

January 24, 2013

One of two stories will probably emerge from Friday’s first reading on how the British economy fared at the end of last year.

UK’s independent forecaster takes a reality check

December 6, 2012

An unusual thing happened on Wednesday amidst all the shouting over British finance minister George Osborne’s autumn budget update which, depending on who you asked, outlined an increasingly dire or healthy state of the UK economy.

The euro zone: choose your own adventure

October 15, 2012

Forecasts about the future for the euro zone economy are starting to resemble a multiple-choice novel. Are you an economist working for an Anglo-Saxon institution? Then turn to p.65 — “Recession for the euro zone”. A German bank? Go to p.80 — “Happy days are here again!”

An unpleasant surprise may lurk in euro zone GDP numbers

September 24, 2012

The euro zone economy may be doing far worse than most economists want to believe. That’s not good news for a central bank trying to rescue the single currency through a hotly-contested bond purchasing programme that has yet to get started.

Biggest analyst split on ECB rate decision since euro launch

September 6, 2012

Some say the European Central Bank will cut rates. Some say they won’t.

The odds that either prediction could turn out to be true on Thursday are more even than since Reuters first began polling on ECB rates in 1999.

U-turns aplenty in predicting U.S. jobs growth

July 5, 2012

 

The past year of forecasting U.S. payroll growth marks a bumpy road of U-turns on the timing of an elusive turning point to sustainable recovery, an analysis of Reuters polls shows.