ECB under pressure, March move more likely

By Mike Peacock
February 3, 2014

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday with emerging market tumult bang at the top of its agenda.

A week before emerging-market turmoil, a prescient exchange on just how much the Fed cares

January 30, 2014

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The last seven days has been a glaring example of fallout from the cross-border carry trade. That’s the sort of trade, well known in currency markets, where investors borrow funds in low-rate countries and invest them in higher-rate ones. Some $4 trillion is estimated to have flooded into emerging markets since the 2008 financial crisis to profit off the ultra accommodate policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Now that central banks in developed economies are looking to reverse course and eventually raise rates, that carry trade is unraveling fast, resulting in the brutal sell-off in emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina over the last week.

Brazil’s need for dollars to shrink in 2014 – but the long-term view remains bleak

January 29, 2014

Brazil’s current account deficit will probably narrow this year. That may sound as a reassuring (or rather optimistic) forecast after the recent sharp sell-off in emerging markets, which prompted Turkey to raise interest rates dramatically to 12 percent from 7.75 percent in a single shot on Tuesday. But that was the outlook of three major banks – HSBC, Credit Suisse and Barclays - in separate research published earlier this week.

Crunch day for Turkey, and Ukraine

By Mike Peacock
January 28, 2014

Hard to look beyond Turkey today. The central bank will issue its quarterly inflation report and has called an emergency policy meeting thereafter and will deliver a verdict at midnight local time. All very cloak and dagger.

Emerging wobbles

By Mike Peacock
January 27, 2014

This week will go a long way to determining whether a violent emerging market shake-out turns into a prolonged panic or is limited to a flight of hot money that quickly fizzles out.

from Global Investing:

Market cap of EM debt indices still rising

January 8, 2014

It wasn't a good year for emerging market bonds, with all three main debt benchmarks posting negative returns for the first time since 2008. But the benchmark indices run by JPMorgan nevertheless saw a modest increase in market capitalisation, and assets of the funds that benchmark to these indices also rose.

from Global Investing:

Ukraine aid may pay off for Kremlin

December 19, 2013

Ukraine said today it was issuing a $3 billion in two-year Eurobonds at a yield of 5 percent in what seems to the start of a bailout deal with Russia. That sounds like a good deal for Kiev -- its Eurobond maturing next year is trading at at a yield of 8 percent and it could not reasonably expect to tap bond markets for less than that. In addition,  Ukraine is also  getting a gas price discount from Russia that will provide an annual saving of $2.6 billion or so.

from Global Investing:

Watanabes shop for Brazilian real, Mexican peso

December 19, 2013

Are Mr and Mrs Watanabe preparing to return to emerging markets in a big way?

Mom and pop Japanese investors, collectively been dubbed the Watanabes, last month snapped up a large volume of uridashi bonds (bonds in foreign currencies marketed to small-time Japanese investors),  and sales of Brazilian real uridashi rose last month to the highest since July 2010, Barclays analysts say, citing official data.

from Global Investing:

The hryvnia is all right

December 5, 2013

The fate of Ukraine's hryvnia currency hangs by a thread. Will that thread break?

Italy housing tax showdown

By Mike Peacock
August 28, 2013

 

Italy’s fraying coalition cabinet meets to discuss what to do with a property tax imposed by previous premier Mario Monti.