from Global Investing:

Sanctions bite Russia but some investors are fishing

August 14, 2014

By Andrew Winterbottom

Russian stocks are up today, for the fifth day in a row and at the highest level in two weeks. What's going on? As we wrote  here earlier in the week, foreign investors have been fleeing this market.  However it could be that some of them are starting to put aside concerns about the potential for further sanctions on Moscow and are scouring Russia's stock markets for contrarian buying opportunities.

The much-anticipated “capex” boom? It’s already happening, and stocks don’t care

March 21, 2014

It’s a familiar narrative: companies will finally start investing the trillions of dollars of cash they’re sitting on, unleashing a capital expenditure boom that will drive the global economy and lift stock markets this year.

Not bullish enough! How predictions for stocks in 2013 are turning out

December 13, 2013

The bulls were out in force again in Thursday’s quarterly Reuters poll of around 350 equity analysts – some 91.3 percent of forecasts for 20 major stock indexes predicted gains from here until the end of next year.

Stocks to rise? 85 percent say yes – as ever

October 11, 2013

Even a government shutdown and the prospect of an unprecedented U.S. government default – no matter how small – couldn’t shake the conviction among equity analysts that stock markets only have further to rise.

from Global Investing:

Show us the (Japanese) money

April 30, 2013

Where is the Japanese money? Mostly it has been heading back to home shores as we wrote here yesterday.

Foreign investors still buying American

April 17, 2012

Overseas investors have yet to sour towards U.S. assets despite high government debt levels, according the latest figures on capital flows.

from Global Investing:

Are global investors slow to move on euro break-up risk?

November 9, 2011

No longer an idle "what if" game, investors are actively debating the chance of a breakup of the euro as a creditor strike  in the zone's largest government bond market sends  Italian debt yields into the stratosphere -- or at least beyond the circa 7% levels where government funding is seen as sustainable over time.  Emergency funding for Italy, along the lines of bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal over the past two years, may now be needed but no one's sure there's enough money available -- in large part due to Germany's refusal to contemplate either a bigger bailout fund or open-ended debt purchases from the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Micro versus macro

August 4, 2010

There is little doubt that the latest U.S. earnings season has been a good one for long-equity  investors. Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that with 67 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, EPS growth -- both actual and that still forecast for those who have not filed yet -- has come in at 36 percent.

Greek Contagion: One Hell of a Tail Risk

February 14, 2010

The crisis of confidence in Greece’s fiscal health has dented U.S. equities, though not enough to compromise a budding American economic recovery. Even a significant slowdown in European growth prospects might have limited immediate impact on the United States. However, that benign backdrop could vanish, economists at Morgan Stanley say, if the Greek situation were to turn in to an outright credit crisis.  They call it the “contagion tail risk”:

from Global Investing:

It’s the exit, stupid

January 26, 2010

Ghoul

Anyone wondering what ghoul is most haunting investors at the moment could see it clearly on Tuesday -- it is the exit strategy from the past few years' central bank liquidity-fest.