Some say the European Central Bank will cut rates. Some say they won’t.
The odds that either prediction could turn out to be true on Thursday are more even than since Reuters first began polling on ECB rates in 1999.
Even during the highly volatile, uncertain time that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Reuters polls of ECB watchers always resulted in a clear majority of economists leaning toward one particular rate cut size.
In the Reuters poll taken last week, 36 of 70 economists expected the ECB to leave the refi rate at 0.75 percent, while almost as many, 34, said it would cut it to 0.50 percent.
The obvious explanation for the split is that the main focus clearly is not on interest rates.
A central bank source told Reuters on Wednesday that there “would be no time to discuss interest rates.”