MacroScope

Greek turning point?

Greece will unveil its draft 2014 budget plan which is expected to forecast an end to six years of recession.

The draft will include key forecasts on unemployment, public debt and the size of the primary surplus Athens will aim for to show it is turning the corner. The government has said any further fiscal belt-tightening will not bring cuts in wages and pensions and that savings will be generated from structural measures.

If even Greece has passed the worst then maybe the euro zone crisis really is on the wane. The FT reports that billionaire John Paulson and a number of other U.S. hedge funds are investing aggressively in Greece’s banking sector, expecting it to get off its knees – an interesting straw in the wind.

However, some form of further restructuring of Greek debts – now largely held by euro zone governments and the European Central Bank – is still firmly on the cards at some point if the country is ever to get back on its feet. Its debt is due to peak at around 175 percent of GDP this year.
Berlin has ruled out “haircuts” on Greek bonds. Instead extension of repayment terms and cuts in interest rates on bailout loans are more likely.

The trigger for such a deal will be Athens’ ability to deliver a primary surplus – a surplus of tax revenue over public spending once debt interest payments are taken out of the equation – next year. In fact, sources told us last month that Greece and its lenders are close to agreeing that Athens will achieve a small primary budget surplus this year.

Stay of execution?

No sign of movement on the U.S. government shutdown but in Italy, party talks have been running red hot, keeping Italian markets in thrall.

Yesterday, senior figures in Silvio Berlusconi’s PDL party urged their colleagues to defy the former premier and back Prime Minister Enrico Letta in a parliamentary confidence vote expected today. Most tellingly, the media mogul’s key ally, Interior Minister Angelino Alfano, called on the party to back Letta.

Now nothing is certain in Italian politics and sources close to Letta say he will not call a vote if the numbers aren’t there, and could resign instead. But given he has a firm grip on the lower house, if even some PDL members support him in the Senate he should win the vote.

The never-ending story

Italian bond yields reversed a big chunk of their losses and stocks followed suit yesterday on the back of our scoop that 20 of Silvio Berlusconi’s senators had told him they could form a breakaway group if he pushed Italy into political chaos.

Whether they would switch their support to Prime Minister Enrico Letta and give him a workable majority in the Senate (he has a firm grip on the lower house) remains to be seen. That could buy several months of relative stability without the threat of Berlusconi mucking things up at any moment.

But we’re not anywhere near that yet and even then, elections would be likely in the spring. Those same senators did not speak out at a PDL meeting on Monday where Berlusconi said the party must push for early elections.

Oh Silvio

Even before the vote on his political future, Silvio Berlusconi ordered his five ministers to quit Italy’s teetering coalition government over the weekend in an attempt to force fresh elections.

With markets already alarmed at the prospect of another self-inflicted political wound – the U.S. government budget shutdown – Italian assets could take a hammering today with investors finally waking up to the potential chaos looming.

Bond yields did climb a little last week but not to the extent that suggests the worst-case scenario is anything like priced in. Italian BTP futures have plunged by well over a full point at the open and the euro is on the skids. Let’s hope everyone still believes in the European Central Bank’s euro zone backstop.

France on a budget

The French 2014 budget will be presented in full today with the government seeking to reassure voters with a plan that makes the bulk of savings through curbs in spending, having relied more heavily on tax increases so far.

The government has already said it expects 2014 growth to come in at a modest 0.9 percent, cutting its previous 1.2 percent prediction, and that after a 2013 which is likely to boast hardly any growth at all.

As a result, the budget deficit is expected to push up to a revised 3.6 percent of GDP from 2.9 next year. That puts Paris in line with IMF and European Commission forecasts but what Brussels thinks about the plan as a whole is another matter.

As election passes, German election keeps on chugging

Germany’s Ifo sentiment index is the big data release of the day and is forecast to continue its upward trajectory after the country’s PMI survey on Monday showed the private sector growing at its fastest rate since January.

Surveys have been strong through the last quarter, putting a question mark over the downbeat European Central Bank and German government forecasts for the second half of the year. The currency bloc as a whole looks set to pretty much replicate its 0.3 percent growth in the second quarter, nothing spectacular but a sign that recession is probably a thing of the past. The German economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter, growing by 0.7 percent. It might not quite match that in Q3 but it may not be far off.

After the Federal Reserve took its finger off the trigger, emerging markets have enjoyed some welcome respite. Hungary’s central bank meets today having cut interest rates by just 20 basis points in August, ending a run of successive quarter-point cuts stretching back into last year.

Angie ascendant

The ecstasy and the agony.

Angela Merkel scored a resounding election victory but by apparently falling just short of an overall majority, while her FDP coalition colleagues failed to get the 5 percent share of the vote needed for any parliamentary representation, she is probably going to have to turn to the centre-left SPD to form a government.

An SPD/Greens/left coalition is not impossible but having secured 42 percent of the vote, the tune is Merkel’s to call.

A grand CDU/SPD coalition is favoured by the German public, according to the polls, and could lead to some policy shifts, and certainly a lot of haggling over key positions in government (will Wolfgang Schaeuble remain as finance minister?) but is unlikely to lead to any seismic shifts, particularly in euro zone policy. The anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell just short of 5 percent but having come from nowhere in just seven months, it has put down a marker.

Banking union shift

For most of the year, the biggest question for the euro zone was whether the pace of reform would pick up after German elections which are now just six days away. Thanks to a Reuters exclusive over the weekend it appears the answer could be yes, at least incrementally.

Senior EU officials told us that Germany is working on a plan that would allow the completion of a euro zone banking union without changing existing EU law. Until now, Berlin has insisted the EU would have to amend its Treaty to move power to close or fix struggling banks from a national to a European level – a process which could take years.

In exchange, a cross-border resolution agency would only rule over the fate of 130 euro zone banking groups that will be directly supervised by the European Central Bank from the second half of 2014. That would leave Germany’s politically sensitive savings banks under Berlin’s control.

Euro chat resumes

After the summer lull, euro zone and EU finance ministers meet in Lithuania. The “informal Ecofin” can often be quite a big deal but with German elections only nine days away, it’s hard to see that being the case this time.

During the election campaign German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble let slip that Greece would need more outside help which would not include a haircut on Greek bonds held by euro zone governments and the ECB.

Since then, European Central Bank policymaker Luc Coene has said Athens might need two bouts of further assistance and Estonia’s prime minister told us yesterday the popular bailout fatigue he flagged as a danger last year had now faded and he was open to aiding Greece with a third bailout and helping other troubled euro zone nations too.

Italian market test

Italy will auction three different bonds, aiming to raise 7.5 billion euros against a volatile domestic backdrop.

A sale of one-year bills on Wednesday saw yields rise, this after the Treasury asked parliament to raise the ceiling on this year’s net debt issuance to 98 billion euros from 80 billion, given the struggle to rein in public finances and a government commitment to pay outstanding bills to firms, which at least could give the economy a boost.

Parliamentarians have a bigger fish to fry in the form of Silvio Berlusconi. A cross-party Senate committee that must decide on whether to bar him from political life drew back from the brink on Tuesday but has caused growing tension between the coalition parties with some of Berlusconi’s allies threatening to pull the shaky government down.