It’s already been established that economists’ predictions about the euro zone’s future hinge largely on where their employer is based. Euro zone optimists tend to work for euro zone banks and research houses, and euro zone sceptics for companies based outside the currency union.
It somewhat undermined the idea their analyses are based purely on hard-headed economics, and less on national factors.
There was an echo of that in this week’s of economists and fixed income strategists, who were asked whether they expect euro zone leaders will agree to the issuance of a common euro zone bond, as backed by new French President Francois Hollande.
Only seven out of 18 analysts thought such a bond would come to fruition.
And of those seven? Six hailed from institutions based outside the euro zone, with a German private bank making for the remaining one.
There are several conclusions that can be drawn from this. Firstly, it could be that only economists from non-euro zone organisations think the region’s crisis will escalate enough for Germany to accede to the formation of a fully-fledged debt union.
