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More volatility expected as Fed rate rise looms – Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok

October 1, 2014

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors

A healthy dose of fear has re-entered financial markets in the final three months of the year. The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX, a widely tracked measure of market volatility, rose to a two-month high on Wednesday.

Beware the bias in euro zone forecasts (again)

October 29, 2013

Next time you ask an economist a question about the euro zone, be sure to enquire where their head office is based.

Austerity fatigue – the financial world’s latest fad phrase

July 19, 2013

From the U.S., we’ve had lots of talk of tapering. In Europe, the latest fad phrase in the financial world is “austerity fatigue”.

Forecasts for the euro zone depend more on head office location than analysis

June 27, 2013

Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.

Although it seems routine, rising euro zone unemployment is still shocking

May 31, 2013

 

Another month, another rise in the number of jobless in the euro zone.

As expected, the unemployment rate hit a new record 12.2 percent in April, according to Eurostat on Friday, meaning some 19,375,000 euro zone citizens are out of work.

Want to know what the ECB is going to do? Watch the German PMI

April 23, 2013

A sudden turn for the worse across German companies should clinch an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next week, or in June at the latest.

Hopefulness, not confidence, is spreading through the euro zone

February 22, 2013

Optimism in Germany is roaring and consumers across the euro zone are starting to become less gloomy. But the latest hard economic data are a reminder of the difference between confidence that things are going to get better, and the hope that they will.

The worst is over for the euro zone? Shh! Stop saying that!

October 19, 2012

Folklore and modern horror are replete with tales of people summoning  ghosts by recanting their name or chanting a particular phrase. Centuries ago there was Bloody Mary. The 1980s brought us the Evil Dead trilogy and Beetlejuice, while Candyman appeared in the 90s.

The euro zone: choose your own adventure

October 15, 2012

Forecasts about the future for the euro zone economy are starting to resemble a multiple-choice novel. Are you an economist working for an Anglo-Saxon institution? Then turn to p.65 — “Recession for the euro zone”. A German bank? Go to p.80 — “Happy days are here again!”

An unpleasant surprise may lurk in euro zone GDP numbers

September 24, 2012

The euro zone economy may be doing far worse than most economists want to believe. That’s not good news for a central bank trying to rescue the single currency through a hotly-contested bond purchasing programme that has yet to get started.