The euro will rise even more, according to some of the top foreign exchange strategists who accurately predicted resilience in the common currency over the past year.

If it does, policymaking will get even tougher for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank, who are already grappling with inflation at a four-year low and well below the bank’s target.

In 2013, the euro was the best performer among the majors, gaining almost five percent against the dollar, wrong-footing the consensus view in Reuters polls during that period.

The latest poll suggested once again that the euro is set weaken over the coming year in anticipation of a dollar rally as the U.S. Fed is widely expected to end its massive stimulus programme and hike interest rates next year.

While that makes sense as a logical explanation for currency moves, this course of events is so well understood by markets that it’s hard to imagine how anything other than a much earlier interest rate hike isn’t already priced in.