But while volatility is on the rise – surely partly a result of thinned trading volumes during the peak summer vacation season – the consensus around when the Fed will start cutting back hasn’t budged.
That makes endless daily reports from traders linking that to the latest falls in asset prices, particularly U.S. Treasuries and non-U.S. share prices, not terribly convincing.
Reuters has conducted nine separate polls of financial forecasters since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dropped his first hint in May. These include economists, and market strategists covering foreign exchange, stock markets and bonds.
All of them have concluded, from the first poll in early June, that September is the most likely month for the Fed to start trimming back its stimulus.