Take-off has been delayed

By Mike Peacock
November 6, 2013

Euro zone services PMIs and German industry orders data will offer the latest snapshot of the currency bloc’s economy which the European Commission now forecasts will contract by 0.4 percent this year and grow just 1.1 percent in 2014 – hardly escape velocity, in fact barely taxiing along the runway.

The limits of Federal Reserve forward guidance on interest rates

November 4, 2013

The ‘taper tantrum’ of May and June, as the mid-year spike in interest rates became known, appears to have humbled Federal Reserve officials into having a second look at their convictions about the power of forward guidance on interest rate policy.

A question of liquidity

By Mike Peacock
October 31, 2013

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep printing dollars at an unchanged rate, mirrored by the Bank of Japan sticking with its massive stimulus programme, should have surprised nobody.

Romer, taking aim at Fed, advocates ‘regime change’ and a shift to nominal GDP

October 28, 2013

By Alister Bull

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Christina Romer, former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and a strong advocate for Janet Yellen to take over from Ben Bernanke as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, slammed the Fed in a lecture last week that accused the U.S. central bank of being too meek and of fighting the wrong battle by being fixated on asset bubbles.

Congress “smashed the instrument panel” of U.S. economic data: Fed’s Fisher

October 18, 2013

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve and one of the U.S. central bank’s arch inflation hawks, took us by surprise this week – he told Reuters that, given all the uncertainty generated by the government shutdown, it would not be prudent for the Fed to reduce its bond-buying stimulus this month.

Time for Fed to rethink its forward guidance?

October 8, 2013

Federal Reserve officials have largely acknowledged by now that leading markets to believe the central bank would reduce its bond buying stimulus in September and then failing to do so was a communications blunder.

Fed doves strike back

October 4, 2013


Now that Washington’s circus-like government shutdown has put a damper on hopes for stronger U.S. economic growth going into next year, dovish Federal Reserve officials again appear to have the upper hand in the way of policy commentary.

How big is the Fed’s communications gap? Six months, give or take

September 30, 2013

You have to give Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke credit for standing his ground on data-dependence. Despite widespread suspicions, including on this blog, that the central bank would begin reducing the pace of its bond-buying stimulus in September simply because the markets were expecting it, the Fed chose to hold off in the face of a still-fragile economy.

As election passes, German election keeps on chugging

By Mike Peacock
September 24, 2013

Germany’s Ifo sentiment index is the big data release of the day and is forecast to continue its upward trajectory after the country’s PMI survey on Monday showed the private sector growing at its fastest rate since January.

Back from the brink

By Mike Peacock
September 19, 2013

Pulling back from the brink. The Federal Reserve certainly has and so has Silvio Berlusconi (so far).