The Bank of England will publish the minutes of Mark Carney’s first policy meeting earlier this month which will pored over for signs of how the debate about forward guidance – it’s all the rage in the central banking world now – went, and whether that may herald more money printing or act as a proxy for looser policy.
Carney’s colleague, Paul Fisher, indulged in his own form of guidance yesterday, telling a parliamentary committee that discussions within the Bank were focused on how to give a steer about future policy moves and whether to inject more stimulus, not whether it should start to be withdrawn as the Federal Reserve has signalled it may do before the year-end.
Fisher is one of the three of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee who has been voting to print more money in recent months, but it was an interesting comment nonetheless. Unemployment data today will give the latest guide to the state of recovery while the independent Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its fiscal sustainability report.
Carney will deliver a plan to the government next month on how to give markets and Britons more certainty about future rate moves with the likelihood that, like the Fed, it will be tied to unemployment or growth targets rather than a definite timeline.
For the markets, Ben Bernanke will eclipse Carney when the Fed chairman testifies to Congress later. European markets are likely to be wading through treacle beforehand.