ECB deflation risk denial has echoes of 2009

January 31, 2014

Euro zone policymakers like to talk. They often contradict each other at separate speaking engagements on the same day. But they have struck a chorus in recent weeks, asserting that deflation is not a threat.

The euro zone: choose your own adventure

October 15, 2012

Forecasts about the future for the euro zone economy are starting to resemble a multiple-choice novel. Are you an economist working for an Anglo-Saxon institution? Then turn to p.65 — “Recession for the euro zone”. A German bank? Go to p.80 — “Happy days are here again!”

High-flying economic indicators

September 12, 2011

At a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Dallas,  discussions on the economic outlook turned so gloomy at one point that a  well-known economist was heard to say he’s inclined to sell everything and  “just buy a gun.”

The octopus and the economists

July 12, 2010

What do an eight-legged creature in an aquarium in Germany and 74 economists have in common? The consensus view that Spain would claim the World Cup — until the economists, as they so often do, changed their minds.

How good are economists at forecasting CPI?

June 2, 2009

Market economists are taking a pasting worldwide for not predicting the global financial crisis. But how good is the profession at more bread-and-butter tasks, such as forecasting economic data?

Has Bernanke got it right?

May 7, 2009

“Don’t fight the Fed” is an ingrained financial markets axiom and hence, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks, investors, traders, analysts, economists and fund managers pay attention.