Silver lining for emerging FX: little room to fall more

September 4, 2015


If there is any silver lining for emerging market currencies after their thrashing in August, it is that they are probably now so cheap they don’t have much room to weaken any further.

Grass getting flattened by fighting FX elephants

August 27, 2015

Young male elephants lock tusks in battle on the plains at the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro in Amboseli national park, southern KenyaThe ongoing race to the bottom for currencies this year is hurtling towards a zero-sum result.

Second Fed rate hike delay this year slowly getting more official

August 27, 2015

RTX1GYLG.jpgFinancial markets have all but shut the door to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following a rout in stocks, currencies and commodities this past week, but economy watchers are only now warming up to the idea — in public at least.

Brazil’s relentless rate hikes shielding economy from inflation bout

June 16, 2015

Employee arranges pricetags at vegetables work bench during the opening day of upmarket Italian food hall chain Eataly's flagship store in downtown Milan

Brazil’s relentless series of interest rates hikes is successfully lowering inflation expectations – despite recent signs to the contrary, from lottery to tomato prices.

Déjà vu? Fed may struggle to hike if U.S. optimism fades for H2

April 28, 2015

RTR4VVNE.jpgThe U.S. Federal Reserve may find it even more tough to raise interest rates as the year wears on if dwindling expectations for growth are any guide.

BOC to hold this year? Probably not say nearly half the primary dealers

April 15, 2015

Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks during a Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce event in central LondonThe Bank of Canada will almost certainly hold policy steady on Wednesday but nearly half of the banks who do business directly with it predict at least one more rate cut this year.

Surprise monetary policy moves may become new norm in India

April 14, 2015

File photo of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan during a news conference in Mumbai

For all the measures India’s central bank has taken to increase transparency in policy making, predicting rate moves by Governor Raghuram Rajan is still difficult.

Patient: Fed may drop the word, not the idea

March 18, 2015

RTR4R4RY.jpgFed Chair Janet Yellen may signal later today that she is no longer patient about when to consider raising rates but any eventual hike is likely to come after June, judging by how many key economic reports so far this year have undercut expectations.

UK rate rise this year? Possible, but not certain yet

June 13, 2014


“It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”

That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.

Better U.S. growth and just muddling along both point to low rates for longer

June 10, 2014

UFaith that the U.S. economy may finally be at a turning point for the better appears to be on the rise, as many ramp up expectations for a better Q2 and second half of the year.