Euro will rally further, say the most accurate FX forecasters

April 11, 2014

The euro will rise even more, according to some of the top foreign exchange strategists who accurately predicted resilience in the common currency over the past year.

Brazil’s need for dollars to shrink in 2014 – but the long-term view remains bleak

January 29, 2014

Brazil’s current account deficit will probably narrow this year. That may sound as a reassuring (or rather optimistic) forecast after the recent sharp sell-off in emerging markets, which prompted Turkey to raise interest rates dramatically to 12 percent from 7.75 percent in a single shot on Tuesday. But that was the outlook of three major banks – HSBC, Credit Suisse and Barclays - in separate research published earlier this week.

Euro zone stock market investors: “Crisis? What crisis?”

December 13, 2013

European shares will be the best performers next year, according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 350 strategists, analysts and fund managers. Frankfurt’s DAX is already up nearly 20 percent this year and is forecast to rally another 10 percent in 2014.

Hopes for a weaker euro looking more like fantasy

December 9, 2013

Hopes that the soaring euro will eventually fall and help the economy with a much-needed export boost for struggling euro zone nations are looking more and more like fantasy.

China at a crossroads on yuan internationalization project

By Saikat Chatterjee
September 3, 2013

As China marks the third anniversary of the first ever bond sale by a foreign company denominated in renminbi, questions are rife on what lies next for the offshore yuan market.

Brazil’s foreign reserves are not all that big

August 8, 2013

Traumatized by several currency crises in the past, Brazil has made a dedicated effort in recent years to amass $374 billion in foreign reserves as China bought mountains of its iron ore and soybeans. When the next crisis came, policymakers figured, the reserves would act as Brazil’s first line of defense.

India seeks to entice yield-seeking investors in a tapering world

By Saikat Chatterjee
July 25, 2013

 

India’s concerted effort to shore up the battered rupee over the past two weeks has had one goal in mind: raising currency-adjusted yields to a level where even investors wary of a withdrawal of cheap money from the U.S. would still buy emerging market assets. The central bank has raised overnight money market rates by more than 300 basis points – a spate of tightening not seen since early 2008 – and sharply inverted the swap and the bond yield curve in less than two weeks.

Self-inflicted ‘sudden stop’? Brazil blocked by its own currency war trench

February 25, 2013

In times of currency wars, it’s best not to shoot yourself in the foot. By imposing several capital controls in the past years, Brazil might have tightened monetary policy right when the economy started to falter, Nomura’s strategist Tony Volpon wrote in a research note on Friday.

Latin America: the risks of being too attractive

October 25, 2012

Ironically, an increase of capital inflows to Latin America in the last few years due to unappealing ultralow yields in industrialized countries and the region’s relative economic success is posing a threat for development, according to a recent paper that provides wider background to BRIC criticism of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve´s quantitative easing.

Foreign investors still buying American

April 17, 2012

Overseas investors have yet to sour towards U.S. assets despite high government debt levels, according the latest figures on capital flows.