Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

Germany just dodges recession

By Mike Peacock
November 14, 2014

Traders are pictured at their desks in front of the DAX board at the Frankfurt stock exchange

After European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi managed to bring his colleagues into line to sign up to his 1 trillion euros or so target to push into the ailing euro zone economy, today sees a raft of third quarter GDP reports which are likely to show just why more help may be needed.

China growth to slow to 5 percent over next year or so: London consultancy

October 31, 2014

China’s economic growth will slow sharply to 5 percent over the next year or so rather than close to 7 percent suggested by forecasts based on official statistics, according to a new indicator of growth momentum published by Fathom, a London-based consultancy.

UK growth robust so what’s eating David Cameron?

By Mike Peacock
October 24, 2014

Britain's Prime Minister Cameron arrives at the European Council headquarters ahead of a EU summit in Brussels

British GDP data are forecast to show healthy growth of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.

Post-Lehman shadows creeping up on German economy again?

October 10, 2014

Germany's Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schauble speaks during a discussion during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Euro zone recovery snuffed out

By Mike Peacock
August 14, 2014

A BMW logo is seen the wheel of a car in Mexico City

A glut of euro zone GDP data is landing confirming a markedly poor second quarter for the currency area.

All eyes on Putin

By Mike Peacock
August 13, 2014

Russia's President Vladimir Putin talks to reporters during a meeting in Brasilia

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his top security officials prior to visiting annexed Crimea on Thursday with members of his government.

Moment of truth in Ukraine

By Mike Peacock
August 12, 2014

A Ukrainian serviceman guards a checkpoint near Donetsk

Financial markets perked up on Monday after Russia called off military exercises near the Ukraine border but was the confidence well founded?

When Mario met Jean-Claude

By Mike Peacock
August 6, 2014

European Central Bank President Draghi and Eurogroup President -Juncker talk during a news conference in Nicosia, Cyprus

A day before the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi will travel to Luxembourg for talks with incoming European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. Oh to be a fly on the wall.

EU cuts off Russian banks, puts ball in Moscow’s court

By Mike Peacock
July 30, 2014

Russia's President Vladimir Putin talks to reporters during a meeting in Brasilia

True to its word, the EU agreed sweeping sanctions on Russia yesterday, targeting trade in equipment for the defence and oil sectors and, most crucially, barring Russia’s state-run banks from accessing European capital markets. The measures will be imposed this week and will last for a year initially with three monthly reviews allowing them to be toughened if necessary.