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Shining a light on the dismal science

November 12th, 2009

Former Head of U.S. Mint Goes for Gold

Posted by: Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

You know the American dollar is in trouble when… 
There is plenty of discussion about the fate of the U.S. greenback these days, what with multi-trillion dollar rescues still flowing through the financial system. But dollar bulls might feel just a little trepidation to see Jay Johnson, former head of the U.S. mint — the folks that print the stuff — become a spokesperson for gold. Johnson actually passed away last month, but he can still be seen on TV infomercials, singing gold’s praises.  

Gold this week rallied to a new record high above $1100 an ounce, even as the dollar sank to a 15-month low against a basket of major currencies. 

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said this week he was mindful of the possibility that the central bank’s pledge to keep interest rates at rock-bottom lows for an “extended period” might be fueling the carry trade. That’s when investors use a “cheap” low-yielding currency to fund trades on riskier assets with loftier returns.

He added that the dollar’s decline had not been disorderly so far, but that he would expect the FOMC (the Fed’s policy-setting committee) and other authorities to craft an appropriate remedy if that were to happen.

May 20th, 2009

Gold to go

Posted by: Peter Starck

Automatic teller machines (ATMs) — 500 of them — dispensing pieces of gold will be available around Germany, Switzerland and Austria by the end of this year.

That at least is the plan of German precious metals online trading company TG-Gold-Super-Markt.de. The ATMs, to be located at airports, railway stations and shopping malls, are intended to accustom ordinary people to the idea of investing in a physical asset such as gold, the thinking goes.
 
Thomas Geissler, the company’s chief executive, said the gold ATMs might even improve relations between the sexes.
 
“I have yet to meet a woman who does not like a gift of gold. It’s better than flowers. Flowers are more expensive. They wilt and you (as a man) don’t get as many points at home as if you bring gold,” he said.
 
A prototype ATM on display for a one-day marketing test at the main railway station in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital, did indeed reward your correspondent with a 1-gramme (0.0353 ounce) piece of gold.
 
It cost the equivalent of $42.25 — a 30 percent premium over the spot market price.

May 11th, 2009

Big Five

Posted by: Swaha Pattanaik

Five things to think about this week:

VALUATIONS
- The MSCI world stocks index has rebounded 37 percent since March, the VIX fear gauge has hit its lowest level since September 2008, and positive earnings surprises in Europe are marginally outstripping negative ones. But there are serious questions over the equity market's ability to sustain its rise.

MACRO SIGNALS
- Trade data from the U.S., Canada and the UK, all out in this week, will be combed for signs of any recovery in global commerce. Also due are flash GDP data from the euro zone, industry output for the U.S., France, Italy, the euro zone and the UK, and Japan machinery orders.  
  
QUANTITATIVE EASING
- The ECB has finally shown willingness to deploy unconventional easing measures but it's hard to judge the success of such steps. Narrowing credit spreads, stock markets' bounce and gains in emerging market assets all show efforts to restore confidence in the financial system are having an effect. But if getting and keeping bond yields down is the yardstick for success, it's unfortunate that 10-year UK and U.S. government bond yields are back up to levels seen before the announcement of quantitative easing in those countries. And diminishing returns on further balance sheet expansion raise questions over how much more money central banks can print before inflation fears start to preoccupy policymakers and markets.
  
COMMODITIES
- Confusion over the reasons for the commodities rally has reduced the usefulness of commodities prices as indicators of the industrial outlook. An apparent economic recovery in China has helped to boost the CRB commodities index by 21 percent from February's lows. But how much does the rise reflect a change in supply/demand for commodities, and how much is it simply due to idle money flooding back to unstable markets? Similarly, why has spot gold remained strong above $900 as jitters over the financial system decrease? Gold could be reflecting expectations that recovering economies will boost physical demand for the metal, but it may also be responding to fears of currency debasement after central banks' radical monetary easing.

EMERGING MARKETS 
- Rising commodity prices and an easing dollar have offered a perfect environment to re-enter emerging markets. The coming week's  EBRD meeting will focus attention on central and eastern Europe and how it is coping with a nasty period of refinancing (albeit less dire than the IMF initially estimated).

March 6th, 2009

Attention, girls: Diamonds may not be your best friend

Posted by: Natsuko Waki

Marilyn Monroe, who sang "Diamonds are a girl's best friend" in the 50s, might be shocked to find out that the value of dimonds has fallen rapidly in the past six months.

According to Nomura, the average best price for to quality 1-Carat diamonds has fallen below $7,000 from hitting a multi-year high near $9,000 in September 2008.

Perhaps gold might grab her attention. The metal has surged towards $1,000 an ounce in the past weeks as investors rushed to seek save-haven gold when stock markets came under renewed pressure.

February 24th, 2009

The final frontier market

Posted by: Natsuko Waki

As a fallout in emerging markets -- once hailed as a safe-haven from the global financial crisis -- gathers pace, asset managers are scrambling for newer markets.

What about North Korea? The Stalinist country boasts large untapped natural resources with deposits of gold, coal, zinc and other minerals. It has virtually no capital markets and its banks are all state-owned -- making it a true safe haven from the global financial crisis.

The communist state has a good logistics route. It has borders with China, Russia and of course South Korea and a short sea route to Japan. South Korean firms such as Hyundai and LG already invest in the North.

KoryoAsia Limited has just launched subscription to the ChosunFund, a fund designed specifically for investment in North Korea. It is seeking to raise an initial $50 million.

"The DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) has effectively been cut off from the international business community for decades. The country holds huge natural resources but is capital starved and lacks the technology and management skills with which to develop them." Colin McAskill, Executive Chairman of KoryoAsia, says.

The fund will focus on North Korea's extractive industries and energy sector, as well as the country's defaulted London Club Debts. Its investment objective is cash flow plus capital growth with investors getting part of their money back initially through redemption of the loan capital, followed by dividends.

But this may be for long-term investors only -- it has an initial life of seven years. McAskill also warns that the fund perhaps has more risk attached to it than most funds.

Investors may also want to look at the country's rocket sector -- the ex-"Axis of Evil" country says it is preparing to launch a satellite on one of its rockets, which analysts have said would actually be the test-firing of a long-range missile designed to strike U.S. territory.