MacroScope

Showdown for Hollande

French President Hollande and Finance Minister Sapin take part in the assizes for financing and investment at the Elysee Palace in Paris

The French government faces a confidence vote in the national assembly after President Francois Hollande and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, ousted dissident ministers in a signal perhaps that they are prepared to push ahead with unpopular structural reforms to breathe life into a moribund economy.

Rebel lawmakers in Hollande’s Socialist party say they may abstain. On top of the reshuffle, they are angry at Hollande’s policy switch in January to favour tax cuts to business in a bid to revive the economy – a move that has failed to kickstart a flatlining economy.

Hollande looks like he has the numbers to get home but a more profound rebellion could force him to dissolve parliament and call new elections. The Socialists have a one-seat majority in parliament.
Socialist party managers put at 30 the number of hard-left deputies set to abstain. A revolt of that order would allow the government to scrape approval from the 577-seat assembly with support from centre-left allies outside the Socialist Party.

It’s a big week for Hollande. On Thursday, he will seek to shore up his domestic approval ratings – at 13 percent the worst for a French leader in polling history – in a televised news conference set to last up to three hours.

France said last week that it would delay cutting its budget deficit by two more years which went down badly with euro zone finance ministers. Other euro zone states have enacted painful cuts to bring down swollen deficits and win back investor confidence.

An almighty gamble

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron leaves Downing Street in London

Having woken up to the very real possibility of Scotland going it alone, the leaders of Britain’s main parties have scrapped their parliamentary business and headed north to campaign in what amounts to a huge gamble.

The “No” campaign has been criticized for many things – being too negative (though no is negative by definition), being too aloof, failing to address the hole’s in Alex Salmond’s manifesto. The question is whether it is too late to do anything about it. It is risky to deploy Prime Minister David Cameron who, by his own admission, is not catnip to the Scots.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is anything but a clear vote-winner either. The years when the Labour party ruled Britain with a raft of Scots in senior positions is gone. The party front bench now looks very English.

Too close to call

Cakes are seen at a tea-party organised by members of the group 'English Scots for YES' near Berwick-upon-Tweed on the border between England and Scotland

A second opinion poll in three days has put the Scottish independence vote as too close to call.

TNS gave the “No” vote 39 percent  support and “Yes” 38. Its last poll in late July gave the “No” campaign a 13-point lead. Taking only those who are certain to vote, the two camps are tied at 41 percent.

The figures look different to YouGov’s weekend poll which sent a jolt through London and Scotland. It gave the secessionists a 51-49 lead but the direction of travel is clear and with only nine days to that could be decisive.

Five days on, Ukraine accord at risk of unravelling

An international agreement to avert wider conflict in Ukraine, brokered only five days ago, is teetering with pro-Moscow separatist gunmen showing no sign of surrendering government buildings and Kiev and Moscow trading accusations over who was responsible for killings over the weekend.

Washington, which signed last week’s accord in Geneva along with Moscow, Kiev and the European Union, said it would decide “in days” on additional sanctions if Russia does not take steps to implement the agreement. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is in Kiev where he is expected to announce a package of technical assistance.

So far, markets’ worst fears have not materialized but with thousand of Russian troops massed on the frontier with Ukraine and deadly clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists, it would not take much to change that.

from UK News:

Has Alistair Darling done enough to revive Labour’s electoral hopes?

So how was it for you?

Chancellor Alistair Darling threw the dice in his pre-budget report in an attempt to bolster Labour's chances of winning the general election in 2010.

From hitting bankers with a one-off bonus tax to lowering bingo duty, Darling played to the Labour heartlands, while hoping to win back voters who have been telling pollsters that they are done with Gordon Brown.

Other measures included the return of full value added tax in January, a 2.5 percent rise in the basic state pension, a 1.5 percent increase in child benefit, as well as help for small businesses and various initiatives to boost the government’s green credentials.

The word on Gordon Brown from Cayman

Gordon Brown is truly having a rough time. Rebuffed by the United States, International Monetary Fund and others for floating the idea of a tax on financial transactions at this weekend’s G20 meeting, he has now got short shrift from the Cayman Islands.

McKeeva Bush, the veteran Caymanian politican who is now premier of the British Overseas Territory, popped in to the Reuters London headquarters for a chat this week. His main concern was to explain plans for making the islands an easier place for financial services personnel to live in. He would like some of those 8,000 hedge nearly 10,000 funds that are registered there to be more than just brass plaques. But, when asked, he also had time to dismiss the idea of a transaction tax out of hand.

“That’s an old hat. I have been hearing about it for 25 years. It’s just not practicable. It will not work.”

Brown gets helping hand from Obama

He loves the Queen and the British people. Truth be told, President Obama was always going to be a hit on his first overseas trip.

But Gordon Brown probably could not believe his luck. The prime minister just could not stop grinning as he stood next to the new president at a news conference in the Foreign Office ahead of the G20 summit.

He must have always been hoping for a bit of the Obama magic to rub off on him and revive his battered ratings but he can’t have expected the ringing endorsement he got.

from UK News:

Ghost of past failure haunts G20

Stopping off in New York during a marathon, 18,000-mile diplomatic offensive before next week’s G20 summit in London next week, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recalled a conference held in eerily similar circumstances in London 76 years ago.

Sixty-six nations gathered for the June 1933 London Monetary and Economic Conference which was aimed at lifting the world’s economy out of the Depression.

But amid American opposition to European plans to return to a system of fixed exchange rates, the conference collapsed and the world put up trade barriers, jobless ranks swelled and the rise of Fascism took the world into war.

from Mark Felsenthal:

Sherlock Holmes and the Case of the Collapsing Economy

"I think, Watson," Sherlock Holmes tells Watson in "The Five Orange Pips,"  "that of all our cases we have had none more fantastic than this."

The famous fictitious sleuth referred not to a world-wide financial crisis, but a multi-continental saga of murderous revenge, and it also centered on the British hamlet of Horsham, where the Group of 20 rich and emerging nations are meeting to solve their own baffling case, the Global Economic Collapse of 2008-?. 

Readers who not like the endings of stories given away should read no futher. Readers hoping for a hopeful analogy to a story about brains and pluck overcoming adversity should also click away from this post immediately.

Echoes of 1933

Will President Barack Obama attend the summit of the Group of 20 rich and emerging countries in early April, hosted by UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown to tackle the financial and economic crisis?

The working assumption is he will, on one of his first foreign trips as president. But there is still no official confirmation.

At the G20 summit in Washington on Nov. 15, Obama’s transition team stuck strictly to the rule: “There is only one president at a time”, and the president-elect did not meet any of the foreign summiteers.