Forward guidance; will it work?

By Mike Peacock
July 5, 2013

After the European Central Bank broke with tradition and gave forward guidance that interest rates will not rise for an “extended period” and could even fall, some of its members – including French policymakers Benoit Coeure and Christian Noyer, and Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann – head to an annual gathering in the south of France.

A day to reckon with

By Mike Peacock
July 4, 2013

This could be a perfect storm of a day for the euro zone.

Portugal’s prime minister will attempt to shore up his government after the resignation of his finance and foreign ministers in successive days. The latter is threatening to pull his party out of the coalition but has decided to talk to the premier, Pedro Passos Coelho, to try and keep the show on the road.

Oscar Wilde and the euro zone

By Mike Peacock
July 3, 2013

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one looks like misfortune, to lose two smacks of carelessness.
Portugal’s government has been plunged into crisis with the foreign minister resigning a day after the finance minister did, the latter complaining that the public would not tolerate his austerity drive.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

By Mike Peacock
June 25, 2013

Who guards the guards? In the case of Europe’s banks, the answer is still a work in progress given the faltering efforts to create a banking union.

Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water…

By Mike Peacock
June 24, 2013

A worrying weekend for the euro zone.

Greece’s coalition government – the guarantor of the country’s bailout deal with its EU and IMF lenders – is down to a wafer-thin, three-seat majority in parliament after the Democratic Left walked out in protest at the shutdown of state broadcaster ERT.

G8 — plenty to worry about

By Mike Peacock
June 17, 2013

The week kicks off with a G8 leaders’ summit in Northern Ireland. Syria will dominate the gathering and the British agenda on tax avoidance is likely to be long on rhetoric, short on binding specifics.

A week to reckon with

By Mike Peacock
June 14, 2013

The week kicks off with a G8 leaders’ summit in Northern Ireland. Syria will dominate the gathering and the British agenda on tax avoidance is likely to be long on rhetoric, short on specifics. But for the markets, this meeting could still yield some big news. For a start, Japanese prime minister Abe is there – the man who has launched one of the most aggressive stimulus drives in history yet has already seen the yen climb back to the level it held before he started. Abe will also speak in London and Warsaw during the week.

Talking Turkey … and Greece

By Mike Peacock
June 12, 2013

Yesterday was another day of turmoil for emerging markets and according to equity index provider MSCI, they have a new member.

Draghi on the IMF and Greece: Hindsight’s a wonderful thing

June 6, 2013

ECB President Mario Draghi had an interesting couple of things to say about historical perspective at his press conference on Thursday, responding to the IMF’s admission that it lowered its normal standards to bail out Greece, among other things.

The numbers don’t lie

By Mike Peacock
May 31, 2013

Euro zone unemployment figures will emphasize just how far the currency bloc is from recovery while inflation data due at the same time could push the European Central Bank closer to new action. If price pressures drop further below the target of close to but below two percent we’re moving into territory where the ECB has a clear mandate to act, although the consensus forecast is for the rate to push up to 1.4 percent, from 1.2 in April.