Q3 rebound but at cost of price cutting?

By Mike Peacock
August 1, 2014

A woman walks past a shop in Madrid

Manufacturing PMI surveys across the euro zone and for Britain are due. The emerging pattern is of an improving third quarter after a generally poor second three months of the year.

Euro zone inflation to fall further?

By Mike Peacock
July 31, 2014

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Euro zone inflation is the big figure of the day. The consensus forecast is it for hold at a paltry 0.5 percent. Germany’s rate came in as predicted at 0.8 percent on Wednesday but Spain’s was well short at -0.3 percent. So there is clearly a risk that inflation for the currency bloc as a whole falls even further.

India share bulls running mainly on hope, well ahead of peers

June 3, 2014

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Indian stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months, soaring to record highs, although the bull run that began with expectations that Narendra Modi will become the country’s next Prime Minister may soon run out of road.

Shock now clearly trumps transparency in central bank policymaking

January 29, 2014

The days of guided monetary policy, telegraphed by central banks and priced in by markets in advance, are probably coming to an end if recent decisions around the world are any guide.

Why is the Reserve Bank of India so quiet on the rupee?

August 23, 2013

 

When nobody’s listening, sometimes it pays to shout from the rooftops.

Based on the rupee’s daily pasting, the Reserve Bank of India might do well to look to the European Central Bank’s strong verbal defense of the euro just over a year ago.

India is in a cloud of economic optimism but its industrial data are in a permanent fog

August 15, 2013

Optimism the Indian economy will soon recover, despite no sign that it is anywhere near doing so, has increasingly led forecasters to overestimate industrial production growth.

India seeks to entice yield-seeking investors in a tapering world

By Saikat Chatterjee
July 25, 2013

 

India’s concerted effort to shore up the battered rupee over the past two weeks has had one goal in mind: raising currency-adjusted yields to a level where even investors wary of a withdrawal of cheap money from the U.S. would still buy emerging market assets. The central bank has raised overnight money market rates by more than 300 basis points – a spate of tightening not seen since early 2008 – and sharply inverted the swap and the bond yield curve in less than two weeks.

Not again, please! Brazil and India more vulnerable now to another crisis

April 25, 2013

After bad economic news from Germany, China and the United States over the past few weeks, here are two more. Brazil and India, two of the world’s largest emerging economies, are increasingly vulnerable to another crisis or to the eventual end of the ultra-loose monetary policies in developed economies after five years of a severe global slowdown.

Resurging inflation to put a dampener on India’s festive spend

November 1, 2012

A perfect storm may be gathering over India’s economy, brought on by a peak in inflation just as the country’s festive season, which is critical to consumer demand, gets under way.

India inflation consistently tough to pin down

September 4, 2012

High inflation is a drag on economic growth in the world’s second most populous country and matters immensely to over 400 million people, or over a third of India’s total population, who struggle to earn enough to feed their families three meals a day.