A day before the European Central Bank’s monthly meeting, service sector PMI surveys for euro zone countries will be scrutinized to see if they add to a developing trend of above-forecast economic data.
Borrowing in dollars is like playing “Russian roulette”, India’s central bank chief Raghuran Rajan said on Bloomberg TV this week.
Volatility is back with a bang.
The Swiss franc leapt by an unprecedented 40 percent at one point after the Swiss National Bank scrapped its currency cap out of the blue. Oil may have bounced but it’s still down the thick end of 60 percent since mid-2014, dragging the rouble and other oil-producer currencies with it. Copper, generally a barometer of world industrial demand, is barely finding its feet after plunging this week.
Euro zone inflation is the big figure of the day. The consensus forecast is it for hold at a paltry 0.5 percent. Germany’s rate came in as predicted at 0.8 percent on Wednesday but Spain’s was well short at -0.3 percent. So there is clearly a risk that inflation for the currency bloc as a whole falls even further.
Indian stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months, soaring to record highs, although the bull run that began with expectations that Narendra Modi will become the country’s next Prime Minister may soon run out of road.
When nobody’s listening, sometimes it pays to shout from the rooftops.
Based on the rupee’s daily pasting, the Reserve Bank of India might do well to look to the European Central Bank’s strong verbal defense of the euro just over a year ago.
Optimism the Indian economy will soon recover, despite no sign that it is anywhere near doing so, has increasingly led forecasters to overestimate industrial production growth.
India’s concerted effort to shore up the battered rupee over the past two weeks has had one goal in mind: raising currency-adjusted yields to a level where even investors wary of a withdrawal of cheap money from the U.S. would still buy emerging market assets. The central bank has raised overnight money market rates by more than 300 basis points – a spate of tightening not seen since early 2008 – and sharply inverted the swap and the bond yield curve in less than two weeks.